[财经时事] 2009, 经济前景并非一片黯淡---华尔街日报 [推广有奖]

最近关于经济的消息一直很郁闷，目前大家几乎普遍认为，经济形势会进一步恶化，然后才会好转。一般看法是，本轮经济衰退的持续时间、影响程度及长期危害都将超过大萧条以来的任何一次经济危机。

不过，就在不到两年前，一般看法是，房地产市场泡沫破裂将是令人痛苦的，但全球经济将稳定增长。这一观点后来证明是大错特错。既然如此，那又有什么理由对现在有关前景低迷的预期深信不疑呢？

对2009年年底前失业率的预期，是根据其他经济衰退期间及之后的失业率情况、以及那些衰退与现在相比的严重程度作出的。对国内生产总值(GDP)增速的预期，是根据过去经济衰退的性质及经济体系再度复苏需要的时间作出的。但过去的经验不一定有助于判断当前的形势。过去几个月中事情的演变方式就前所未有。

经常听到人们拿当前经济危机与大萧条和20世纪70年代的经济危机作比较。大萧条时期，全球经济急剧衰退；20世纪70年代油价飙升之后，发达国家GDP经济增长急剧放慢，随后出现能源价格重挫。但上述问题都是在几年时间中发生的。而自9月15日雷曼兄弟破产以来发生的情况是，全球信贷市场几乎崩溃，在全球范围内，除必需品行业之外的所有经济领域同时陷入停滞。而且这场危机是在几周之中发生的，而不是几年。10月和11月的数据显示，公司收益、汽车销量、房价、大宗商品等多项指标纷纷下降10%、20%，有的甚至更多。不过分析师和策略师将此称做“新的正常”现象，预计这种现象将延续到2009年甚至以后更长时间。

的确，全球经济停滞是信息技术及全球化的阴暗面。在过去20年中，信息技术及全球化创造了巨额财富和商业活动。只有依靠互联网和电子交易，资本的无障碍即时流动才成为可能。铜、铁矿石等工业用金属的供应链由地区性变为全球性，由分散变成统一。半导体成为一种全球性行业，根据全世界的整体需求来确定定价和存货。没有几个行业是局部存在的，几乎一切事物都是相互联系的。

经济形势好的时候，那意味着信贷和商业活动空间以几何级数扩张和扩大。举例来说，中国在这20年中的变化比很多国家100年发生的变化还要大。但是当这个体系中出现问题资产，其危害会迅速蔓延至各个领域。雷曼兄弟倒闭在几周的时间内就导致中国市场汽车销量下降，还拖累迪拜房地产价格下滑。

不过，如果陷入停滞的速度比之前快，那复苏的时间也可能更快。当然这并不绝对，只是可能性稍大一些。而且有迹象显示，并不是所有领域的情况都像一般人看起来的那么差。

首先，还没有出现战争、革命、国家和政府垮台或大规模示威游行席卷全球的情况。中国、希腊和泰国出现了一些示威的人群，有些与经济危机有关，有些则不是。巴基斯坦现在是如履薄冰，原因是多方面的，经济因素只是其中之一。不过20世纪的重大经济危机也常常引发诸如此类的重大事件，尤其是20世纪30年代那次。尽管没人知道过几个月是否会发生那样的动乱，就目前的形势来看，社会环境算是相对稳定的了。

其次，全球多个地区的消费水平仍相对良好。关于“消费者一直在超前消费”的断言可能让很多人觉得这一观点荒谬可笑，但这么说并不只是因为美国三分之一的家庭没有抵押贷款，中国的储蓄率达50%，也不只是因为海湾地区、巴西和俄罗斯仍在持续大规模积累财富，而且是因为这个信用体系，虽然处于最混乱的时期，也并不允许消费者像金融机构那样使用大规模财务杠杆。的确，有几千万原本没有适当资格的人通过抵押贷款或信用卡获得了贷款，但他们还是无法像投资银行和基金那样利用40比1的杠杆比例进行投资。

人们对当前问题也迅速作出了反应，无论是出于谨慎或者必要，他们纷纷偿还债务并减少支出。这在短期内会拖累经济，但会让消费者保持良好的财务状况。低能源价格和零通货膨胀率将提振消费能力。即使失业率达到9%或更高，美国和全球其他地区的消费者储备也超过历史情况显示的水平。美国住房净值较高点回落，但仍为大约45万亿美元。随着信贷放宽，位于历史低点的利率水平也预示着，有着良好信用纪录的人和小企业创办者来年进行债务再融资或获得贷款更加便利。经济体系出问题的时候，创业活动通常很活跃。

此外，与2002年和20世纪80年代的经济低迷期不同，现在企业的财务状况十分干净，负债少而现金多。政府扩大支出的方式也更具创造性，美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)和即将上任的奥巴马政府计划扩大支出。

2008年的最后几个月将成为迄今为止最严重的经济逆转时期之一，而且逆转是全球性的。认为这段时期能够为将来的情况发展提供有益线索，这种想法是可笑的。

一窝蜂公布对经济前景黯淡预期，这样做掩盖了一个事实，那就是没人知道一场史无前例的经济危机的结果如何。谁都不知道。面对不确定性，最糟糕的做法就是对传统智慧和历史模式的盲从。而面对未知最好的对策就是，保持谦逊的态度，提出创造性的实际解决方案，同时也不抱偏见，要接受这样一种可能性，即经济形势可以在短时间内恶化，同样就有可能很快出现重大逆转。

2008 年 12 月 31 日 11:55 The Economic News Isn't All Bleak   The recent economic news has been dismal, and it's now almost universally assumed things will get worse before they get better. Conventional wisdom also dictates that this recession will be longer, deeper and cause more long-term pain than any financial crisis since the Great Depression.

Yet, less than two years ago, conventional wisdom dictated that the housing bubble would be painful but that global economic growth would remain stable. That assertion was proved dramatically incorrect. Why then is there so much conviction in today's forecasts of a dire future?

Predictions about the rate of unemployment by the end of 2009 are based on how high that rate went during and after other recessions, and how steep those recessions were compared to today. Forecasts of GDP growth are grounded in the nature of past contractions and how long it took the system to begin expanding again. But none of these past patterns are necessarily a useful guide to the circumstances of today. The way events have unfolded over the past few months simply has no precedent.

It's common to hear comparisons to the Great Depression, when economies around the globe shrank precipitously, or to the 1970s, when an oil shock gave way to steep contraction of GDP growth in the developed world and a concomitant collapse in energy prices. But those occurred over the course of years. What happened since the collapse of Lehman on Sept. 15 was a global, synchronous cessation of all but nondiscretionary economic activity in the wake of the near-collapse of global credit markets. And it happened over the course of weeks, not years. Data from October and November show shrinkage of 10%, 20% and often considerably more in corporate earnings, car sales, home prices, commodities and a host of other areas. But analysts and strategists now take this as the 'new normal' and are projecting into 2009 and beyond as if it were.

True, this global halt is the dark side of the information technologies and globalization that have created so much wealth and generated so much activity in the past 20 years. The frictionless, instantaneous flow of capital is possible only because of the Internet and electronic exchanges. The supply chain for industrial metals, from copper to iron ore, has gone from being regional and fragmented to global and unified. Semiconductors have become one global industry with pricing and inventories determined based on aggregate world-wide demand. Few industries are local, and almost everything is linked.

In good times, that meant credit expanded and activity magnified geometrically. China for one has undergone more transformation in 20 years than most countries have seen in 100. But when the system was infected with toxic assets, the effects spread everywhere and fast. The collapse of Lehman led to fewer cars being sold in China in a matter of weeks, and the decline of Dubai real-estate prices to boot.

And yet, if things came to a halt more quickly than ever before, they could also restart more quickly than ever before. This is not to say they will, only that the possibility is more than marginal. And there are signs things are not everywhere as bad as conventional wisdom suggests.

First, we haven't seen war, revolution, the collapse of states and governments or massive demonstrations sweeping the globe. Crowds have demonstrated in China, Greece and Thailand -- for reasons sometimes related to the economic crunch and sometimes not. Pakistan is teetering for multiple reasons -- of which economics is only one. But major economic crises in the 20th century almost always led to those types of major breaks, especially during the 1930s. While no one can say whether they will come in the months ahead, for the time being we should be remarking on how relatively stable things are in light of what has happened.

Second, consumers in many parts of the world are in relatively good shape. That statement might strike many as absurd, given the mantra of 'consumers have been living beyond their means.' But it's not just the third of American households that have no mortgage, or the 50% savings rate in China, or the still massive wealth accumulation in the Gulf region, Brazil and Russia. It's that the credit system, even at its most promiscuous, didn't allow consumers to take on the obscene leverage that financial institutions did. Millions of people who shouldn't have been lent money were, either in mortgages or through credit cards. But they couldn't be levered 40-to-1 as investment banks and funds were.

People have also reacted swiftly to the current problems, paying down debt and paring back purchases out of prudence or necessity. That's a short-term drag on economic activity, but it will leave consumer balance sheets in good shape going forward. Low energy prices and zero inflation will boost spending power. Even if unemployment reaches 9% or more, consumer reserves in the U.S. and world-wide are deeper than commentary would suggest. Household net worth in the U.S. is down from its highs but is still about $45 trillion. As the credit system eases, historically low interest rates also augur debt refinancing and constructive access to credit for those with good histories and for small business creation in the year ahead. Entrepreneurs often thrive when the system is cracking.

In addition, corporations generally have very clean balance sheets with little debt and lots of cash, unlike the downturns in 2002 and in the 1980s. And government has more creative ways to spend, which both the current Federal Reserve and the incoming Obama administration intend to do.

The last months of 2008 will go down as one of the most severe economic reversals to date, and on a global scale. But it is foolish to assume that this period provides a viable guide to what lies ahead.

The rush to declare the future bleak has obscured the fact that no one knows the outcome of an unprecedented event. No one. The worst course in the face of uncertainty is blind faith in conventional wisdom and past patterns. The best is to stay humble in the face of the unknown, creative and unideological about solutions, and open to the possibility that as quickly as things turned sour they can reverse.

Zachary Karabell

(Editor's Note: Mr. Karabell is the president of River Twice Research. His book on China and the United States will be published by Simon & Schuster next year.)

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-1-1 0:45:14编辑过]

猫爪  金钱 +20  魅力 +20  经验 +20  好帖子，好久不见，元旦快乐！！ 2009-1-1 19:12:26