楼主不懂养殖行业，

不管养殖成本如何上升，

供求关系是决定猪肉价格上涨的根本原因！

看看历史吧，

04-05年猪价也曾很高，

养殖户一哄而上，

以至供应量巨大，

所以有了06年的低行情！

养殖户在高成本的情况下急速淘汰，

辛苦了一年，

反而亏本，

散户急剧减少，

规模农场才能幸存下来！

农场外出务工人员外出收入增加，

减少养殖！

高热病的流行，

也使经历一轮周期的养猪行业备使打击，

所以才导致了猪价的奇高！

这应该是中国几千年来最高的猪价呢！

另外，国家加大对养殖行业的补贴，

这点在平时下功夫，

也是养殖行业的长周期性所注定，

而不是猪价上涨的时候才去考虑。。。

贴一个最新的数据：

State Investment in Hog Production
The State Development Commission has recently decided to allocate RMB2.8 billion for hog production this year. The sum will be used for the construction of standardized scale hog farms and brood sow farms.

So far, the State Development Commission has provided RMB5.6 billion for the construction of 55 grandparent generation pig breeding farms, 375 parent generation pig breeding farms, 41 specialty pig farms, 20,000 standardized hog farms and 70 chicken breeding farms.

Most of the newly-built hog production bases are integrative complexes comprising feed mills, slaughterhouses, etc. The government’s financial support is conducive to the development of hog industry.

Hog Price Expected to Go Steady
Hog procurement price averaged RMB14.94/kg in the first two weeks of July, down 2.29% from a month ago. Causes for the price decline include the following:

First, hog inventory is estimated to be 445 million heads in July, an increase of 15% on the year-on-year basis. Second, meat consumption drops in hot weather. Third, pork consumption is partly replaced by broilers and eggs because of the low price of the latter two products. In addition, some farmers dump hogs for fear of hog diseases and price slump.

Piglet price is over RMB30/kg currently. For every RMB1/kg drop of piglet price, hog production cost drops RMB0.19/kg. The current hog production cost is close to RMB14/kg. BOABC predicts that hog price may stay at RMB14 ~ 15/kg in the medium run.



Hog Production Little Affected by Snowstorms in Early 2008
Unprecedented snowstorms caused many sows’ abortion and killed about 5 million heads of hogs, 4 million heads of which were piglets, in early 2008. Assuming no such snowstorms, these piglets would be big enough to go to slaughterhouses in June and July.

Compared with the 36 million heads delivered to slaughterhouses in June and 33 million heads in July, the 4 million piglets died of snowstorms are just an insignificant number.

是通胀问题，是long-term的成本上升，是短周期内的供给紧缺？

分析得有一定道理

现在要过个正常的日子不容易哦~~~

城管管拉泔水的？半夜不睡觉吗？对于城管的一帮人，我实在是无语，根本不听辩解，辩解一句，加200元不等。。。太蛮横了。。。

记得南京今年夏天的时候，卖西瓜的散户很多，确实有碍观瞻，但城管的横冲直撞根本解决不了问题，反而出现几次城管与生意人打架事件，后来，经媒体曝光，有关部门给卖西瓜的发了证，允许他们在路边搭建临时卖瓜棚，西瓜摆得整整齐齐的，市容也解决了，瓜民也不愁地里的西瓜卖不出去了。

我觉得什么事情采用蛮横的强制的手法都是行不通的，只有实实在在的解决了，使大家都服了才行。可是城管的可能会认为没收了水果摊，蔬菜摊，罚了钱是他们的额外收入，所以采取突击检查的方式和生意人捉迷藏，哎，很没意思。

有一个趋势，目前敛财集团的手法从新兴行业运用到传统行业中来了。他们的美名就是改造提高传统行业。

农林木渔，哪个不叫苦连天的。基础产业就必须保持国家基本国策，毛先生当年坚持的人民群众汪洋大海的战略，对于产业而言，也是很有借鉴意义的吧。

基础产业没有周期论。

个别书生用死读书来解释现实问题，佩服。

我分析问题的倾向方法是：均衡态和非均衡态的互换变迁。

均衡态的系列因素变动引起其变化。控制和预见系列因素的作用是非常有弹性的。