[外行报告] 加拿大黄金开采行业研究报告2008年 [推广有奖]

Table of Contents
Summary and Investment Thesis ....................................................... 4
Stacking-Up the Seniors ..................................................................... 8
Production Growth ............................................................................................. 9
Gold Reserves .................................................................................................... 10
Operating Costs .................................................................................................. 12
Earnings and Cashfl ow Per Share ...................................................................... 15
Capex Funding ................................................................................................... 16
Valuation Multiples ............................................................................................ 17
Political Risk ...................................................................................................... 20
The Big Dig: Ranking the Multi-Billion Dollar Mines of the
Future .................................................................................................... 22
Consolidation – What-if Scenarios: GG + AEM; ABX + AEM ....... 28
Flat production profi les and higher costs to drive acquisitive behaviour .......... 28
Barrick Gold Corp. .............................................................................. 31
Investment Summary ......................................................................................... 31
Barrick Gold Overview ..................................................................................... 33
The Growth Challenge ....................................................................................... 35
Gold Reserves – The World’s Largest Reserve Position .................................... 36
Earnings ............................................................................................................. 39
Balance Sheet Strength Provides Flexibility to Build and/or
Acquire ............................................................................................................... 40
Net Asset Value .................................................................................................. 43
Justifi cation of Target Price ................................................................................ 45
Positive Catalysts ............................................................................................... 45
Key Risks to Target Prices ................................................................................. 46
General Risk ....................................................................................................... 47
Barrick Gold Corp. – Company Operations ....................................................... 48
Development Projects – The Mega-Mines of the Future ................................... 56
Other Development Assets ................................................................................. 62
Management ....................................................................................................... 65
Summary Financial Statements .......................................................................... 66
Goldcorp Inc. ........................................................................................ 69
Investment Summary ......................................................................................... 69
Goldcorp Inc. Overview – Acquisition-focused growth switching to organic
growth ................................................................................................................ 71
Reserves weighted towards Penasquito ............................................................. 74
Sustainable production growth best in class ......................................................76
Balance Sheet and Hedging ...............................................................................78
Earnings ............................................................................................................. 78
Net Asset Value .................................................................................................. 79
Justifi cation of Target Price ................................................................................ 81
Positive Catalysts ............................................................................................... 81
Key Risks to Target Price ................................................................................... 82
General Risk ....................................................................................................... 83
Goldcorp Inc. – Company Operations ............................................................... 83

Company Key Operations .................................................................................. 83
Development Projects ........................................................................................ 88
Other Development Assets ................................................................................. 92
Goldcorp Inc. – Management ............................................................................. 94
Summary Financial Statements .......................................................................... 95
Kinross Gold Corp. .............................................................................. 98
Investment Summary ....................................................................................... 98
Kinross Gold Corp. Overview ........................................................................100
Filling the Wedge – Where does the next leg of growth come from? .............. 104
The Ixhuatan Project, Mexico .......................................................................... 105
Balance Sheet and Hedging ............................................................................. 106
Earnings ........................................................................................................... 107
Net Asset Value ................................................................................................ 108
Justifi cation of Target Price .............................................................................. 110
Positive Catalysts ............................................................................................. 110
Key Risks to Target Price ................................................................................. 111
General Risk ..................................................................................................... 112
Company Key Operations ................................................................................ 113
Development Projects ...................................................................................... 119
Management ..................................................................................................... 124
Summary Financial Statements ........................................................................ 125
Appendix I. North American Gold Producers: Comparative
Statistics .............................................................................................. 128
Appendix II. Justifi cations of and Key Risks to Target Prices ....... 131
APPENDIX A. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES .............................. 135

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