我有一份project急着要交,但有没有什么头绪,请大家帮帮忙告诉我应该怎么做!!
project给了一组季度烈酒的卖出(Quarterly Sales of Alcoholic Spirits)数据,整篇用R来做数据
1,build a time series model
首先是要用R建模
2, deciding which model to fit
决定用哪个model(ar?, ma?, arma??)
3,some of the data at the end of series, the length of, say, give 4 or 5 reasons, should held back and the data at the model is to be fitted the earlier part .
给出4,5个解释, 数据的尾部的一部分长度为什么会抑制,和model为什么拟合前面部分??
4,forecast using the fitted model
用拟合模型预测
5,to demonstrate the capability of the model.
证明model 的性能/容量
我现在不知道要怎样选用哪个model? 具体要怎么做??有人能告诉我如何分析的步骤么??
谢谢!!!