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[外行报告] 铁士古证券:2009年泰国证券市场投资策略 [推广有奖]

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bigfoot0518 发表于 2009-1-23 10:29:00 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
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Market Strategy
Sector Strategy
Value re-emerges but risks remain
Visit Ongpipattanakul
662 633 6468
visit@tisco.co.th
Poramet Tongbua, CFA
662 633 6474
poramet@tisco.co.th
TISCO Research Team
662 633 6999
tiscoresearch@tisco.co.th
Sector Strategy
Note
MARKET SUMMARY
SET Index:
52-week high 884.19
52-week low 384.15
Avg. daily turnover Bt15.81bn
Avg. daily turnover US$0.47bn
Market capitalization: Bt3,591.93bn
Market capitalization: US$102.92bn
SET INDEX
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Index
Source: SET
Performance (%) -1m -3m -12m
SET 6.59 (4.94) (43.15)
PRICE TO EARNINGS
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
Jun-06
Aug-06
Nov-06
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Index
Source: SET
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2007 2008F 2009F
GDP (YoY%) 4.9 3.0 -0.8
CPI (YoY%) 2.2 5.5 0.0
Exports (YoY%)* 17.3 17.1 -4.6
Baht / US$** 34.54 33.36 36.28
MLR (%) 6.87 7.13 6.54
Notes : * F.O.B.
** Average
Sources : BoT, TISCO Research
Good value can be found in the Thai market
After a tumultuous 2H08 that saw a 50% plunge in the Thai market, value
stocks have re-emerged but a disciplined and patient investment strategy
is needed to identify potential winners. A wild ride could be seen in 2009
given the depth of the global economic crisis. Switching between defensive
and beta + value stocks could offer handsome returns in the year ahead.
Wild ride ahead for the Thai market in 2009?
Our base case scenario is that GDP growth for Thailand would bottom out
in 1Q09 followed by a gradual recovery in 2H09. This being the case an
upswing in the stock market could be seen from late 1Q09 onwards,
though with the risk of another correction if an economic recovery fails to
take hold. A W-shaped trading pattern is a distinct possibility in 2009 with
the SET fluctuating over a wide range of 300-600 pts. A firm rebound will
not be seen until a confirmed earnings recovery takes place. We anticipate
a reversal in the EPS trend to positive growth starting from 2Q10, which
suggests a sustainable rally in the market from late 2009 onwards.
Expect a more stable government though with bumps along the way
Political risk remains a key factor in keeping the Thai market’s overall PER
at a discount to its regional peers but we believe the risk should be less
than in 2008. The new government’s focus on reviving the economy and
reconciliation efforts could give less justification for anti-government
protestors (red-shirts) to continue their campaign. A more credible and
efficient administration should also ensure that the forthcoming economic
stimulus packages can be implemented more effectively.
Stock picks: defensive plays preferred in the short term
We continue to favor defensive stocks on a short-term view given that
further downside is possible for the macro picture. A deep and prolonged
global recession would cause more downside for stock markets worldwide
in 1Q09. We advise switching to deep value and beta stocks by late 1Q09
to early 2Q09. Our top picks for short-term defensive plays are BEC World
(BEC.BK), Bangkok Expressway (BECL.BK), Total Access Communication
(DTAC.BK), Thai Union Frozen (TUF.BK), Thai Tap Water (TTW.BK). For
value + beta picks in late 1Q09 we prefer Banpu (BANP.BK), Siam
Commercial Bank (SCB.BK), Land and Houses (LH.BK), Thai Oil
(TOP.BK) and Bangchak (BCP.BK).
Potential upside of 8% to our SET index target of 518pts
Out top-down target for the SET index in 2009 is 518pts (derived from the
Gordon Growth model, using CoE of 12.1%, RoE of 12.7%, 2.5% GDP
growth for 2010F) which implies a target PER of 9.1x, well below the long
term average PER of 12x. Among the key risk factors are: 1) a longer and
deeper economic slowdown that is currently anticipated; 2) a period of
global stagflation; and 3) renewed instability in Thai politics.

Contents
Investment thesis 3
Macroeconomic outlook for 2009 4
Around 75% of stocks are trading below book 7
Sector Outlook
Agriculture and Foods & Beverages 15
Automotive 23
Banking 27
Commerce 31
Construction Materials 36
Construction Contractors 47
Electronics Component 53
Energy 58
Finance – Hire purchase 69
Finance – Credit cards 76
Finance – Securities companies 80
Healthcare Services 85
Information & Communication Technology 89
Media & Publishing 95
Petrochemicals & Chemicals 102
Property Development - Commercial 108
- Industrial Estate 113
- Residential 119
Tourism & Leisure 128
Transportation & Logistics 134

Investment thesis
Outlook
After the market meltdown of 2H08 (a 50% plunge in the SET), value stocks have reemerged
and are now plentiful. However, we still need to be selective and methodical in
choosing potential winners. We could be in for a wild ride on the market in 2009 as is
normally seen in periods of economic crisis. Assuming that GDP growth for Thailand
bottoms out in 1Q09 a gradual economic recovery could take hold in 2H09. This scenario
would allow an upswing in the equities market from late 1Q09 onwards, but with the risk
of a further correction if the recovery is weaker than anticipated. A reversal of the EPS
trend to positive growth could start from 2Q10 onwards, which could support a more
sustained rally in the market from late 2009 onwards. We assume that political risk would
be less of a drag on the market than in 2008. The new government’s focus on reviving the
economy and reconciliation efforts could give less reason (and justification) for antigovernment
protestors (red-shirts) to sustain their campaign. A more credible and efficient
administration should also ensure that the forthcoming economic stimulus packages can
be implemented more effectively.
Stock picks
We continue to favor defensive stocks on a short term view given that further potential
downside exists for the macro picture. But as the market seems to have largely factored
in a recession scenario and the new administration should function better than its recent
predecessors, investors should be prepared to look for cheap stocks that would benefit
from higher domestic demand than was previously assumed. While it may take time to
see a sustained revival of consumption and investment, simply laying a more solid
foundation for recovery could be sufficient for the market to deliver a healthy rebound. A
return of FIF (foreign investment funds) money in late 1Q09 could also help lift market
sentiment substantially, along with expectations of more effective economic management
from the new government.
Valuation
Our current top-down target for the SET index is 518pts which is based on the Gordon
Growth model (assuming a CoE of 12.1%, RoE of 12.7% and 2.5% GDP growth for
2010F). Note that we factored in -10% earnings growth YoY for 2009F in deriving the RoE
used in the GG model. At this target the implied PER for the SET is 9.1x which is still at a
discount to the Thai market’s long-term average of 12x and the current regional forward
PER of 9x. The bottom-up valuation remains high at 558pts, though this is subject to
further cuts in earnings and target prices.
Risks
Downside risks include: 1) a deeper economic slowdown that is currently anticipated; 2) a
period of stagflation due to a reversal of commodity prices after supplies were slashed
and a weak US dollar); 3) continued capital outflow resulting in a weaker baht than is
anticipated; and 4) renewed political instability in Thailand.

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关键词:市场投资 证券市场 投资策略 Construction Expectations 投资 证券 泰国

zxm2010 发表于 2009-10-26 18:54:07 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
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