韩国教育行业研究报告2009年3月

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Education plays attractive amid
economic slowdown
Education sector recommendations (Units: won, %, x)
OPM P/E PEG ROE
Rating TP (12M) Current
price 2008 2009E 2008 2009E 2008 2009E 2008 2009E
Woongjn Thinkbig Buy 24,000 16,050 8.5 9.1 12.9 7.5 0.3 0.5 16.3 26.9
MegaStudy Buy 280,000 195,000 33.4 35.4 22.8 18.0 0.8 0.7 28.3 30.1
JLS Buy 9,000 7,200 10.7 14.8 16.0 9.8 0.2 0.3 20.6 31.5
Chungdahm Learning Buy 38,000 31,200 17.6 19.2 11.8 12.3 0.4 0.4 27.1 26.0
Daekyo Hold 5,100 4,000 6.8 7.4 17.4 7.9 0.4 0.4 4.1 7.1
Note: Based on closing prices of March 11
Source: Woori I&S Research Center Estimates
High income earners to increase education spending
Polarization in education spending is accelerating in Korea, with low income
earners reducing spending on private education and high income earners
increasing spending further. Why and how can high income earners increase
education spending amid the economic slowdown? First, high income earners’
disposable income is relatively inelastic to economic fluctuations. Second, high
income earners’ education spending to disposable income is lower than that of
low income earners. Therefore, we believe high income earners have the ability to
further increase their spending on private education.
Private education market insulated from slow economy; market to
benefit from government’s education policies
Household spending on private education (elementary, middle, and high school
levels) rose 4.3% y-y to W20.9tn in 2008, implying that the education market is
relatively defensive to the slowing economy in terms of earnings growth and
stability. In addition, the policy environment is very favorable for the private
education market. The government has emphasized the importance of English in
its overall education policy and the importance of KSAT is increasing. Both
changes are expected to boost demand for private education. Recently, the Korea
Council For University Education (KCUE) hinted at a possible lifting of the
“three no’s” policy (prohibits college-administered entrance exams, high school
rankings, and admissions based on gifts/donations to the school). If collegeadministered
entrance exam and high school rankings come into play, entrance
exam competition should intensify and demand from elementary and middle
school students should rise.
Top picks to grow substantially in 1Q09
We maintain Buy recommendations on Woongjin Thinkbig, MegaStudy, JLS, and
Chungdahm Learning. We believe these companies will grow substantially amid
the slowing economy. In particular, we expect them to post double-digit operating
profit growth in 1Q09.

Table of contents
I. Investment points ................................................................................................................
II. Polarization in education spending accelerates in Korea ..............................................
􀁺 High income earners to increase education spending
􀁺 High-income households to increase spending on education
􀁺 Growing demand for high-end private education
III. Private education market’s growth prospects intact even amid economic
contraction .........................................................................................................................
􀁺 Private edu market to continue growing even amid economic downturn
IV. Beneficiary of education policy: English immersion program and heated
competition for college entrance .....................................................................................
􀁺 Change in education policy
􀁺 Private English education spending immune to economic downturn thanks to
government emphasis on English education at public schools
􀁺 Competition for college places to intensify on growing importance of KSATs and
opening of international middle schools
V. Woori I&S coverage: invest in stocks with growth potential .........................................
[Company analysis]
Woongjin Thinkbig (Buy, TP W24,000) ................................................................................
MegaStudy (Buy, TP W280,000) ...........................................................................................
JLS (Buy, TP W9,000) ...........................................................................................................
Chugdahm Learning (Buy, TP W38,000) .............................................................................
Daekyo (Hold, TP W5,100) ....................................................................................................
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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 教育行业 行业研究 Polarization 教育 研究报告 行业 韩国

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