美国会议员Ron Paul：奥地利学派经济学家们是正确的

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

美国会议员Ron Paul：奥地利学派经济学家们是正确的

2009年06月01日 14:26 铅笔经济研究社

（本文是国会议员Ron Paul-罗恩.保罗11/20/2008在美国众议院的发言：奥地利经济学家们是正确的，选自译言网站：http://www.yeeyan.com/articles/view/82893/41228?yeeyan=1，译者：MarkGreene）

议长女士，许多美国人希望新一届政府会解决我们现在所面临的经济问题。我认为这不太可能，因为新总统(1)的经济顾问们对我们该如何走出这个困境的理解并不比前一届政府和国会懂得更多，他们不理解产生危机的根本在哪里。

除了极少数人之外，国会议员们对奥地利经济学派的自由市场理论知之甚少。在过去的八十年间，我们的立法，司法和行政机构彻底地被凯恩斯经济学派所占据了。如果他们曾懂得哪怕一点点奥地利经济学派对商业周期(2)的解释，他们就绝不会允许这样危险的泡沫产生，而要消除这些泡沫就必须要经历一段痛苦的调整时期。

今天，一轮巨大的商业周期的阴影正在向我们袭来。为了应付这轮商业周期，每天都有新的政府项目被实施，对未来的规划甚至比以前更多了，所有这些措施都建立在一个理念上，即我们陷入这个困境是因为自由市场资本主义和健全货币的失败。我们仍痴迷于更多的开支，更多给不良投资的贷款，更多的债务，进一步的美元贬值。许多人正在说为了解决目前的问题，我们需要一个涉及全世界的国际范围的解决方案，我们需要建立一个国际中央银行和统一的法定储备货币。其实这些建议和以前那些把我们带入这个困境的政策并没什么区别，注定会失败。

至少有90%的经济危机的账可以被算在美联储头上。人为扩张的信贷、人为增加的货币供应总量、人为降低的银行利率导致了各种各样泡沫的形成；国会通过各种规划比如《社区再投资法》(3)，建立各种机构比如房地美，房利美(4)，联邦存款保险银行(5)，住房和城市建设部(6)，等于在往火上浇油，而所有这些又都被激进的法院裁决所支持。

至今美联储已经发放了大约两万亿美元的贷款去资助那些陷入困境的银行和金融机构。美联储和财政部常常吹嘘需要更多的“透明度”和“监管”，但一切都只是说说而已——他们不会真这样做的，他们想要的只是保密，只有这样他们才能悄悄地牺牲中产阶级的利益来挽救特权阶层。

难以想象的是，国会在这件事上轻易地就放弃了它的职责。美联储傲慢地拒绝告诉我们两万亿美元的去向，而国会除了宽恕以外什么都没做。今天经济危机严重到这种程度，所有的国会成员和所有的美国人都应该感到出离愤怒。越来越多的美国人已经在要求给美联储判死刑了，这毫不让人感到奇怪。

美联储给我们带来了这些麻烦，然而这个机构却在设法获得更多的权力，试图把整个经济体系社会主义化。去年通过的整个救助计划是没有监管，没有限制，没有考虑后果，没有理智，没有常识的。

我们在上世纪三十年代就犯过了类似错误，紧随而来的是罗斯福新政(7)，杜鲁门公平政策(8)，约翰逊伟大社会(9)和供给派(10)学者，本来保守党人对维持一个美利坚帝国所需承担的昂贵财政赤字十分担忧，而那些学者们让他们相信了赤字真的是无关紧要的事。

自大萧条以后所有的经济计划都是为了阻止经济衰退和萧条，然而所有这些计划所做的只是埋下了历史上最严重的经济泡沫的种子。由于缺乏对这个问题的理解，今天舞台和背景都已搭好，只等演员上场了，大范围的国有化金融系统，甚至连生产资料都有可能被国有化。

尽管很明显凯恩斯派经济学家们彻底错了，干涉主义和中央经济规划是不可能成功的，那我们应该听谁的建议来摆脱这场危机呢？不幸的是，仍然是凯恩斯主义者，社会主义者和大政府的支持者们在充当顾问。

然而谁被忽视了呢？仍然是奥地利自由市场经济学家们，那些不仅正确预见到了大萧条，还预见到了我们今天所陷入灾难的人。如果经济危机是可以被预测的，也是可以被解释的，为什么没有人愿意听他们呢？那是因为太多政客相信天下有免费的午餐，相信我们已经有了一个新的经济模式。但这样的话我们从古时起就不停地听到了——就像能点石成金的“贤者之石”(11)。不劳而获是人类一直以来的梦想。

有些人比这些政客们站得更高，看得更远，他们明白控制了货币就控制了政权(12)。无论自由主义者和保守主义者，无论共和党人和民主党人，他们从大学里就被灌输“赤字是无关紧要的，美联储的存在是为了把债务货币化(13)，这是合法而无害的”等等这些理念，也终于相信了他们所说的话。然而真相却不是这样，任何中央经济规划都是不利于经济的，增加货币供应总量和故意把美元贬值总是有害而充满危险的。

大政府倡议者们的政策正在失去力量。他们的政策过去失败了，现在失败了，将来注定也要失败。仅仅重复那些把我们拖进这个危机的政策完全不可能提供解决之道。

好消息是奥地利经济学家们正被越来越多的人所接受，并很有可能在未来发挥更大的影响而不像过去很长一段时间里我们所经历的。

最根本问题是大政府的倡议者们需要一个中央银行来偷偷摸摸的支付账单而不用直接提高税收。他们可以通过需要多少钱就印多少钱的办法来延期付款。如果提高税收的话，人民就会看清为一个大政府所需付出的真正代价，人民就会起来反抗。但是无论怎样债务还是要还，这就是这场经济危机的根本原因。

任何事情都有个极限。中央银行不可能一直加速增加货币供应总量，所以任何一个国家也不可能永远依靠央行来维持经济稳定和货币正常流通。最终经济规律会否定政客们、官僚们和央行行长们。经济系统会崩溃直到过剩的债务和错误的投资被清算。如果政府在这条路上走的太远，挥霍无度却没有被制止的话，失去控制的通货膨胀就发生了，最终我们就需要一种新的货币来恢复经济增长和稳定政局。

我们所面临的选择并不让人乐观，或许我们可以接受一个极权的国际政府来控制这个有根本性缺陷的系统；又或者我们可以选择恢复宪法的原则，恢复一个小政府，重建一个以商品为本位的货币，那样我们就不需要一个美联储系统，也可以拒绝一个国际政府，还可以通过平等地保护所有人的自由来促进和平。自由才是答案。

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏1 回帖

关键词：奥地利学派经济学 奥地利学派 Paul 经济学家 经济学 Paul 经济学家 奥地利学派 Ron 议员

可惜啊，在一片投资和救市的喧嚣中，已经没有奥地利学派能够做点儿什么的空间了。

也许，可以预见下一次萧条。

即便是国会议员，即便是总统候选人，即便在美国这标榜自由的土地上，奥派的声音仍然被淹没在凯恩斯主义的喧嚣中，少有民众的支持，少有民众的认同。从这个意义上，奥派是不折不扣的少数派，虽然近年其队伍有壮大之势。

美国尚且如此，在我国那只有称为可怜了。许多人根本不知道奥派之存在，或者想当然从名称来断定其不过是一流派而已，更有甚者，认为奥派经济理论是研究奥地利的；而对奥派有所耳闻一知半解的则通常人云亦云将奥派称之为市场原教旨、极端自由放任，然而这却是极尽污蔑之不实之词，如果这也可以拿来证明理论自身的错误，那奥派理论在500年前便已销声匿迹了；而有一定了解的，有一定学问的，则可能不能认同奥派的个人主义、主观主义、先验的方法论，当然，这可能就需要很大篇幅来说明为什么这一方法论是合理的了；还有一些人，结构主义观点根深蒂固，认为经济学理论是取决于特定时间和地点的，不同国家不同阶段适合不同的经济学理论，此种心态非常符合我国的所谓“中庸之道”，颇受众多人的欢迎笑纳。而且，在我国，即便是有奥派的寥若晨星的文献，据我所知，也大多深深刻上了马主义的印记，普通人欲对其了解，收效甚微。总之，奥派在我国，不消说有做什么的空间，恐怕连像样的声音，也没有。

然而，坦白说，“奥派”此称号着实“小才大用”，它并非一派经济理论如此简单：从体系上看，它一以贯之，逻辑优美严谨，用“人的行为公理”或“个体理性之原则”推演出整个理论体系；从内容上看，它博大精深，涉及价值、市场、货币、企业家精神、知识分工、制度演进、环境、法律，可以说，它提供才是真正的“世界观”和“方法论”。简而言之，奥派经济理论才是真正意义上的“经济科学”，就如同物理学一样。当然，这么比喻可能会产生歧义，经济学，其更恰当的称呼，是米塞斯所称之为的“人类行为学”，其从研究方法上来说更类似于几何学抑或逻辑学，并不能如同迄今为止最为成功的学科——物理学那样的实证主义科学或经验主义科学。

说了如此多，或许不吝阅读该文者早已按捺不住，心说此人对奥派“鼓吹”之何等程度！然而我要说的是，我鼓吹的还远远不够，更不及奥派理论其实际所应值得的程度。这当然由本人学识之所限所不可避免。但如能引起越多的有识之士的注意，则当欣慰至极，然更希望的是，那些真正的奥地利学派的学者，能够将奥派理论发扬而光大。因为，事实上，它关乎全人类的利益（听上去是否有马主义宣传的味道?惭愧），关乎全人类的未来，毕竟，这一理论本质所阐述的是事关人类繁荣、进步的基石——自由。

好吧，就算奥派经济学家是正确的（我对此学派一无所知），可是他们正确在哪里，有应对危机的实际举措吗？这位议员先生，请你说清楚些！如你所说世界花费了80年的时间检验出凯恩斯主义是“错误”的，现在深陷危机，再也经不起另一个错误的80年了，你们如何能够让世人相信奥派能够促进经济良性运转呢？

首先，回楼上，从字里行间看，我不认为你真地认为奥派的正确，不过没有关系，因为至少在我看来，我从来不勉强别人接受我的观点，这取决于你的自由选择。

其次，相信吗，奥派的解决对策就是，什么都不要做。不过，现实中，大多数人会支持、赞同，而政府也不断在寻求“做些什么”。凯恩斯主义太容易理解了，甚至对一个“对经济学什么都不懂的人”也是如此。但对自由市场经济学，或许一个人一眼是难以洞穿的，有这种悟性的人几乎难以寻见。而这，或许是，自由市场经济学理论难以为大众接受之一个原因吧。

再次，有人称奥派经济理论为“功利经济学”，同“自由放任”称呼一样，我不喜欢这个名称，但如去掉文字色彩的话，含义却是如此。打个比方，我们生活在地球上，必然受到重力的作用影响，试问，是否应当“做些什么”让我们不受重力之影响？奥派理论之所以被称之为功利、实用主义，原因就在于，它不会对经济政策提出任何观点，其任务仅是描述事物的发展规律而已。因而，你的问题本身就是错误的，它是凯恩斯式的问题。奥派从来没有让其理论以促使经济良性运转，与此相反，马克思和凯恩斯的理论才是如此，因此，同样的问题留给马克思或凯恩斯或许更为恰当。不过，它知道，在人们违反这一规律时，可能会出现怎样的后果，就像知道一个人如果从六楼跳下会有怎样的结果一样。楼上如果费心去查阅相关资料的话，就可了解，只有奥派经济学家保持长期而一贯的对历次大危机做出准确预测的记录，当然，说准确也是相对的，毕竟，他们同样不清楚危机发生的确切时间（或许这得问政府，呵呵）。

最后，你期待这位议员说得清楚些。下面这位议员先生的一篇文字或许让你有更多的了解。遗憾的是，只有英文的，不过相信应该没有什么大问题。欢迎交流。

Has Capitalism Failed?

by Ron Paul

Congressional Record — US House of Representatives July 9, 2002

It is now commonplace and politically correct to blame what is referred to as the excesses of capitalism for the economic problems we face, and especially for the Wall Street fraud that dominates the business news. Politicians are having a field day with demagoguing the issue while, of course, failing to address the fraud and deceit found in the budgetary shenanigans of the federal government — for which they are directly responsible. Instead, it gives the Keynesian crowd that runs the show a chance to attack free markets and ignore the issue of sound money.

So once again we hear the chant: "Capitalism has failed; we need more government controls over the entire financial market." No one asks why the billions that have been spent and thousands of pages of regulations that have been written since the last major attack on capitalism in the 1930s didn't prevent the fraud and deception of Enron, WorldCom, and Global Crossings. That failure surely couldn't have come from a dearth of regulations.

What is distinctively absent is any mention that all financial bubbles are saturated with excesses in hype, speculation, debt, greed, fraud, gross errors in investment judgment, carelessness on the part of analysts and investors, huge paper profits, conviction that a new era economy has arrived and, above all else, pie-in-the-sky expectations.

When the bubble is inflating, there are no complaints. When it bursts, the blame game begins. This is especially true in the age of victimization, and is done on a grand scale. It quickly becomes a philosophic, partisan, class, generational, and even a racial issue. While avoiding the real cause, all the finger pointing makes it difficult to resolve the crisis and further undermines the principles upon which freedom and prosperity rest.

Nixon was right — once — when he declared "We're all Keynesians now." All of Washington is in sync in declaring that too much capitalism has brought us to where we are today. The only decision now before the central planners in Washington is whose special interests will continue to benefit from the coming pretense at reform. The various special interests will be lobbying heavily like the Wall Street investors, the corporations, the military-industrial complex, the banks, the workers, the unions, the farmers, the politicians, and everybody else.

But what is not discussed is the actual cause and perpetration of the excesses now unraveling at a frantic pace. This same response occurred in the 1930s in the United States as our policy makers responded to the very similar excesses that developed and collapsed in 1929. Because of the failure to understand the problem then, the depression was prolonged. These mistakes allowed our current problems to develop to a much greater degree. Consider the failure to come to grips with the cause of the 1980s bubble, as Japan's economy continues to linger at no-growth and recession level, with their stock market at approximately one-fourth of its peak 13 years ago. If we're not careful — and so far we've not been — we will make the same errors that will prevent the correction needed before economic growth can be resumed.

In the 1930s, it was quite popular to condemn the greed of capitalism, the gold standard, lack of regulation, and a lack government insurance on bank deposits for the disaster. Businessmen became the scapegoat. Changes were made as a result, and the welfare/warfare state was institutionalized. Easy credit became the holy grail of monetary policy, especially under Alan Greenspan, "the ultimate Maestro." Today, despite the presumed protection from these government programs built into the system, we find ourselves in a bigger mess than ever before. The bubble is bigger, the boom lasted longer, and the gold price has been deliberately undermined as an economic signal. Monetary inflation continues at a rate never seen before in a frantic effort to prop up stock prices and continue the housing bubble, while avoiding the consequences that inevitably come from easy credit. This is all done because we are unwilling to acknowledge that current policy is only setting the stage for a huge drop in the value of the dollar. Everyone fears it, but no one wants to deal with it.

Ignorance, as well as disapproval for the natural restraints placed on market excesses that capitalism and sound markets impose, cause our present leaders to reject capitalism and blame it for all the problems we face. If this fallacy is not corrected and capitalism is even further undermined, the prosperity that the free market generates will be destroyed.

Corruption and fraud in the accounting practices of many companies are coming to light. There are those who would have us believe this is an integral part of free-market capitalism. If we did have free-market capitalism, there would be no guarantees that some fraud wouldn't occur. When it did, it would then be dealt with by local law-enforcement authority and not by the politicians in Congress, who had their chance to "prevent" such problems but chose instead to politicize the issue, while using the opportunity to promote more useless Keynesian regulations.

Capitalism should not be condemned, since we haven't had capitalism. A system of capitalism presumes sound money, not fiat money manipulated by a central bank. Capitalism cherishes voluntary contracts and interest rates that are determined by savings, not credit creation by a central bank. It's not capitalism when the system is plagued with incomprehensible rules regarding mergers, acquisitions, and stock sales, along with wage controls, price controls, protectionism, corporate subsidies, international management of trade, complex and punishing corporate taxes, privileged government contracts to the military-industrial complex, and a foreign policy controlled by corporate interests and overseas investments. Add to this centralized federal mismanagement of farming, education, medicine, insurance, banking and welfare. This is not capitalism!

To condemn free-market capitalism because of anything going on today makes no sense. There is no evidence that capitalism exists today. We are deeply involved in an interventionist-planned economy that allows major benefits to accrue to the politically connected of both political parties. One may condemn the fraud and the current system, but it must be called by its proper names — Keynesian inflationism, interventionism, and corporatism.

What is not discussed is that the current crop of bankruptcies reveals that the blatant distortions and lies emanating from years of speculative orgy were predictable.

First, Congress should be investigating the federal government's fraud and deception in accounting, especially in reporting future obligations such as Social Security, and how the monetary system destroys wealth. Those problems are bigger than anything in the corporate world and are the responsibility of Congress. Besides, it's the standard set by the government and the monetary system it operates that are major contributing causes to all that's wrong on Wall Street today. Where fraud does exist, it's a state rather than a federal matter, and state authorities can enforce these laws without any help from Congress.

Second, we do know why financial bubbles occur, and we know from history that they are routinely associated with speculation, excessive debt, wild promises, greed, lying, and cheating. These problems were described by quite a few observers as the problems were developing throughout the 1990s, but the warnings were ignored for one reason. Everybody was making a killing and no one cared, and those who were reminded of history were reassured by the Fed chairman that "this time" a new economic era had arrived and not to worry. Productivity increases, it was said, could explain it all.

But now we know that's just not so. Speculative bubbles and all that we've been witnessing are a consequence of huge amounts of easy credit, created out of thin air by the Federal Reserve. We've had essentially no savings, which is one of the most significant driving forces in capitalism. The illusion created by low interest rates perpetuates the bubble and all the bad stuff that goes along with it. And that's not a fault of capitalism. We are dealing with a system of inflationism and interventionism that always produces a bubble economy that must end badly.

So far the assessment made by the administration, Congress, and the Fed bodes badly for our economic future. All they offer is more of the same, which can't possibly help. All it will do is drive us closer to national bankruptcy, a sharply lower dollar, and a lower standard of living for most Americans, as well as less freedom for everyone.

This is a bad scenario that need not happen. But preserving our system is impossible if the critics are allowed to blame capitalism and sound monetary policy is rejected. More spending, more debt, more easy credit, more distortion of interest rates, more regulations on everything, and more foreign meddling will soon force us into the very uncomfortable position of deciding the fate of our entire political system.

If we were to choose freedom and capitalism, we would restore our dollar to a commodity or a gold standard. Federal spending would be reduced, income taxes would be lowered, and no taxes would be levied upon savings, dividends, and capital gains. Regulations would be reduced, special-interest subsidies would be stopped, and no protectionist measures would be permitted. Our foreign policy would change, and we would bring our troops home.

We cannot depend on government to restore trust to the markets; only trustworthy people can do that. Actually, the lack of trust in Wall Street executives is healthy because it is deserved and prompts caution. The same lack of trust in politicians, the budgetary process, and the monetary system would serve as a healthy incentive for the reform in government we need.

Markets regulate better than governments can. Depending on government regulations to protect us significantly contributes to the bubble mentality.

These moves would produce the climate for releasing the creative energy necessary to simply serve consumers, which is what capitalism is all about. The system that inevitably breeds the corporate-government cronyism that created our current ongoing disaster would end.

Capitalism didn't give us this crisis of confidence now existing in the corporate world. The lack of free markets and sound money did. Congress does have a role to play, but it's not proactive. Congress's job is to get out of the way.

同意楼主的
个人认为，实证主义之风不可乱涨，不然有违科学精神之危险。
在中国，哈耶克的名气远远在米塞斯之上，这只能说是我国知识界的耻辱。当冠冕堂皇的计量经济分析顶着实证主义的大旗到处以形式出现之时，我看到的是一帮知识的皮条客，而不是让人敬仰的知识分子。
实证主义在哲学领域早已声名扫地，可见我国经济学教育何等的落后。我不反对经济学研究生学习拓扑学、实分析等数学课程，但是思想和形式本末倒置的现象，值得我们反思。

米塞斯的先验论带有很深的新康德主义的印记，但又有多少人真正理解他呢？我看到的是，很多人没看过多少这方面的资料，却来批判米塞斯的先验论，我看， 这不仅仅是一种误解吧。

引用一句格言：当一个人用一本书敲击自己脑袋的时候，如果听到的是“哐哐”的回声，试问，这是书本的问题，还是这个人的脑子本身有问题？