大和证券：香港银行业研究报告2009年6月

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Just the beginning of the rally
Summary
􀂃 Get ready for a market re-rating. We believe the recent surge in the share prices of Hong
Kong banks was due partly to upward revisions to the banks’ earnings forecasts by the market
for 2009. However, our net-profit forecasts for the Hong Kong banks for 2009 are about 30-
50% higher than the IBES-consensus forecasts. In our opinion, the variances are due mainly
to our higher loan-growth and lower credit-cost forecasts. We believe the market will re-rate
Hong Kong banks if their asset quality improves over the remaining quarters of 2009.
􀂃 Current valuations remain undemanding. We have revised our earnings forecasts for most
of the Hong Kong banks that we cover for 2009 and 2010, mainly to reflect downward
revisions to our expense and credit-cost forecasts. Our 2010 ROE forecasts for most banks
are well above their 1997-07 averages. However, most of them are still trading at below their
1997-07 average PBRs, implying that their valuations are undemanding. Our Gordon Growth
Model shows 13-22% share-price upside potential for most banks. In view of what we see as
their undemanding valuations and the increase in earnings visibility for 2009, we have
upgraded our rating for the Hong Kong banks sector to Positive from Neutral.
􀂃 Hang Seng Bank (HSB) upgraded to 1 (Buy) from 4 (Underperform). We have revised up
our net-profit forecasts for HSB by 14.7% and 20.4% for 2009 and 2010, respectively. This is
due mainly to: 1) a better-than-expected net-interest margin (NIM) for 1Q09, 2) a sharp
improvement in asset quality for 1Q09, compared with 4Q08, and 3) the expansion of nonstock-
market-related fee income. We have also raised our six-month target price for HSB to
HK$139.00 from HK$79.20.

Contents
Investment summary.........................................................................................................3
Revisions to our net-interest-income forecasts .................................................................5
Downward revisions to our expense forecasts................................................................10
Asset quality better than we expected.............................................................................13
Upward revisions to our BVPS forecasts........................................................................17
Valuations and recommendations ...................................................................................20
Company section
Bank of East Asia (23 HK)......................................................................................23
BOC Hong Kong (2388 HK)...................................................................................27
Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK)..................................................................................30
Dah Sing Banking Group (2356 HK) ......................................................................33
Dah Sing Financial (440 HK) ..................................................................................36
Fubon Bank Hong Kong (636 HK) .........................................................................39
Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)........................................................................................42
HSBC Holdings (5 HK)...........................................................................................45
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Asia (349 HK) .....................................48
Wing Hang Bank (302 HK).....................................................................................51

https://bbs.pinggu.org/viewthread.php?tid=2&page=1#pid1

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