摩根斯坦利：大中华区宏观经济研究报告2009年6月(免费)

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Greater China
Economics
Issues in Focus
China Economics: One Country, Three Economies:
Play the Regional Disparity in China
Different Regions in China will likely demonstrate a
pronounced divergence in growth trends during the
global recession, in our view. While the strength of the
authorities’ anti-crisis policy response is determined by
the adverse situation in those regions hardest hit, the
policy response will likely be largely on-discriminative
across regions, reflecting the particular nature of China’s
central-local government relationship.
Hong Kong: Q&A on Monetary Conditions
The stream of capital inflows into the Hong Kong dollar
and the associated interbank liquidity has refueled
discussions about the Hong Kong currency board and
monetary system. In this report, we compile the
commonly asked questions, and our answers to them,
related to Hong Kong’s currency board and monetary
system, the latest developments with respect to liquidity
conditions, and longer term fundamental considerations
for monetary management in Hong Kong amidst the
changing macro and financial landscape.
Hong Kong: Harder Landing in 1Q09, but Stronger
Recovery Ahead
The Hong Kong economy contracted more severely
than expected in 1Q09, by 7.8%YoY (-4.3% QoQ
seasonally adjusted). The economy was hard hit by the
plunge in external trade, but domestic demand actually
fared better than our expectations.
Taiwan: The Surprise Index
We constructed our proprietary Taiwan Macro Surprise
Index (TMSI) by looking at the derivations between the
actual macro data and consensus expectations. The
TMSI helps to gauge the cyclical strength of the
economy and tells us what is “priced in” and what is not,
TSMI shows the continuation of an uptrend. We believe
that sentiment will continue on a more sustainable
recovery track this time.

China
Economics and Strategy: One Country, Three Economies:
Play the Regional Disparity in China
4
China Economics: Property Sector Recovery is For Real 14
Hong Kong
Fiscal Package - Extending the F09/10 Budget 22
Q&A on Monetary Conditions 25
Harder Landing in 1Q09, but Stronger Recovery Ahead 31
Taiwan
The Surprise Index 35
Record GDP Fall in 1Q; But Worst is Likely Behind 40

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2009-6-11 09:32:00 上传

摩根斯坦利：大中华区宏观经济研究报告2009年6月

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关键词：宏观经济研究 摩根斯坦利 研究报告 摩根斯坦 经济研究 宏观经济 研究报告 摩根斯坦利 大中华区

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