德意志银行：中国化工行业研究报告2009年4月

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Table of Contents
Investment thesis .............................................................................. 3
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................4
Risks ........................................................................................................................................4
China: Key highlights ........................................................................ 5
Chinese Economy .....................................................................................................................5
Stimulus plan ............................................................................................................................7
Other issues.............................................................................................................................8
Petrochemicals in China.................................................................... 9
A material expansion programme is underway.........................................................................9
Industrial gases summary............................................................... 12
Disciplined growth continues..................................................................................................12
China automotive update ............................................................... 14
A glimpse of recovery…but not a sure thing yet ....................................................................14
European companies....................................................................... 17
BASF (BUY, Target Euro 35). Leveraging a strong asset position ...........................................18
Bayer (BUY, Target Euro 54): MaterialScience is building a leading low-cost position in
Polyurethanes and Polycarbonate...........................................................................................23
DSM (BUY, Target Euro 24): Focusing on lifesciences ...........................................................27
Air Liquide (HOLD, Target Euro 72): Developing a strong platform in the region ...................30
AkzoNobel (HOLD, Target Euro 32): Profitable niches............................................................33
Chinese companies.......................................................................... 35
China Pharmaceutical (NR, 1093.HK, HK$3.24): Vitamin fundamentals remain strong ...........36
Geely Automotive (HOLD, HK$ 0.74). Strong expansion planned in the Chinese automotive
sector.....................................................................................................................................38
US companies .................................................................................. 39
DuPont (BUY, Target $27). Diverse capabilities fit China’s needs..........................................40
Dow Chemical (HOLD, Target $7.5). Focused on the Performance businesses.....................45
Praxair (BUY, Target $70). A high ROCE industrial gases business in China ...........................48
Air Products (BUY, Target $60). Building a broader Asia growth platform .............................52
Appendix A: Valuation/risks........................................................... 55
Appendix B: Global valuation......................................................... 59
Appendix C: Key economic indicators ........................................... 62

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关键词：行业研究报告 中国化工行业 德意志银行 中国化工 研究报告 中国 研究报告 行业 化工 德意志银行

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