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Investment conclusion: We think that Spark and SP
AusNet will raise new equity capital to fund large capex
programs and cut dividends, principally to satisfy credit
providers. DUET and Envestra, which have both raised
equity recently, have less immediate pressure but do not
enjoy a relative buffer in the long term, in our view, as
they were (and are) more heavily leveraged and thus
have fewer choices. APA has greater capex flexibility
and less need to tap equity markets, in our view.
Our recommendations, which include a downgrade of
SPN to Equal-weight, reflect our estimate of value
relative to current prices. In particular, we think that SKI
is trading well below fair value, despite our expectation
of an A$100m capital raising and a reduction in the
FY10e dividend from 18.9c to 16c.
Where we differ: This note includes a detailed analysis
of the three key reasons that companies may elect to
raise equity or cut dividends: 1) capex plans and ability
to fund them; 2) debt refinancing; and 3) credit ratings
pressure.
What's new: The regulator issued a final ruling on the
regulated return (WACC) on May 1, 2009. This ruling
was more favourable in some areas relative to
December’s draft ruling, but funding pressure on the
sector will remain.
What’s next: The final regulatory ruling may prove the
catalyst for SP AusNet and Spark to each announce a
rights issue. SP AusNet’s FY09 results are due to be
announced on May 12, 2009. Electricity assets owned
by Spark, SP AusNet and DUET will face regulator
scrutiny later this year and into 2010.
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