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CONTENTS
Investment recommendation 3
I— Private Banks trading at attractive values 5
􀁑 Swiss private banks trading at 2.3% of AUM, 1x P/BV 5
II— Summary of sensitivity analysis 8
􀁑 Average 3% to 6% loss in private client AUM 8
III— Swiss banking secrecy demystified 9
􀁑 Swiss banking secrecy: protection for tax dodgers, not criminals 9
􀁑 Importance of offshore business: around CHF2,000bn in AUM 9
􀁑 What is changing? No distinction tax fraud vs tax evasion 11
􀁑 Experience of tax amnesties: success depends on terms 12
IV— What is at stake? 14
V— Other implications of diluted secrecy 21
VI— Downturn in profitability mainly cyclical 23
VII— Company profiles 26
􀁑 CS Group 28
􀁑 EFG International 33
􀁑 Julius Baer 38
􀁑 Sarasin 43
􀁑UBS 48
􀁑 Vontobel 55
􀁑 VP Bank 58
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