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兰德公司对于世界经济的调整报告，希望对大家有点帮助。（写世界经济报告的朋友注意了）
Adjusting to Global Economic Change （The Dangerous Road Ahead）
This occasional paper is intended to suggest to economists and policymakers in the United
States and elsewhere that the macroeconomic perils faced by the global economy are deeper
and likely to last longer than those presented by the current financial crisis.
A warning is not a forecast. Economic forecasts beyond a very few years are subject to so
many unexpected variables that they frequently miss even the direction of change—as many
investors and policymakers have discovered. But warnings may help hedge against worst cases.
In most macroeconomic crises, the worst case—depression or inflation—is fairly clear, and
modern policymakers have the tools at hand to cope. This paper warns that the worst case now
may be both—stagflation—and makes some brief suggestions about the new tools needed.
The method combines macroeconomic history since the Great Depression with a brief
exposition of the theories developed from this history and explores how that experience may
apply to the future.
The author, a retired senior economist and current adjunct economist at the RAND Corporation,
was deputy director of the U.S. Congressional Budget Office from 1975 through
1979, where he observed the stagflation of that period and helped analyze the policies devised
by the administration and the Congress to cope with it. Returning to RAND in the 1980s and
1990s, he coauthored a report on macroeconomic policy and wrote several journal and magazine
articles on the subject.
Publication of this occasional paper was sponsored by the RAND Pardee Center. The
Pardee Center, established through a generous gift from RAND alumnus Frederick S. Pardee,
aims to enhance the overall future quality and condition of human life by aggressively disseminating
and applying new methods for long-term policy analysis in a wide variety of policy
areas where they are needed most.
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