汇丰银行：南美固定收益市场研究报告2009年7月

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We continue to believe that Latin
American fixed income and FX will be
range-bound for the time being
􀀗 The market mood has become bipolar,
with large swings between optimistic
buoyancy and skepticism
􀀗 We see value in Mexico EXD, remain
engaged with receivers in Brazil and
Mexico, and recommend selling CLP vs.
BRL
We continue to believe that Latin American fixed-income
prices and FX will be range-bound for the time being.
EM EXD spreads rallied during the last few days but remain
inherently vulnerable to rapid swings in global sentiment.
EM asset prices remain vulnerable to any setbacks in
risk appetite, while supported by ample liquidity and low
funding cost at the expense of quantitative easing. Steep
yield curves continue to be an invitation to extend duration,
while positive carry appears likely to continue to attract
investors to EXD. This limits the downside of EM, in our
view, even if “green shoots” turn browner in summer.
The market mood has become bipolar, with large swings
between optimistic buoyancy and skepticism with respect
to green shoots in the developed world. This led to a selloff
in commodity prices and renewed volatility in the S&P
500, which remains the global proxy for appetite for risk.
The latest economic activity data for Latin America
outperformed expectations. Our Latin America Economic
Activity Surprise Index has shown the first positive indicator
in May since the beginning of the financial crisis.
In hard-currency debt, contrary to consensus, we start to see
value in Mexico EXD; thus, we open a new trade: sell
Mexico, buy Brazil 5Y CDS protection.
In local markets, we remain engaged with receivers in Brazil
and Mexico but maintain very low duration. We expect local
yield curves to remain steep for a while.
We note that Latam FX has remained bound to broad ranges
over the past two months. We expect fickle sentiment and
tactical strategies to prolong range-bound trading for now.

Bipolar sentiment 3
Market overview 3
The view from Asia 8
FX spotlight: a new valuation framework for the BRL 9
Summary of views 10
The pulse of the market 11
Trade ideas 12
Country overviews 13
Argentina 13
Brazil 14
Chile 15
Colombia 16
Ecuador 17
Mexico 18
Panama 19
Peru 20
Venezuela 21
Central America 22
Latin America Surprise
Indices 23
Central Bank Watcher 24
Charts and tables
Local markets 25
Inflation linkers and break-evens 26
External debt 28
External debt yield curves 30
External debt bonds, CDS and basis 31
FX forecast and NDF 33
Forward/NDF-implied yield curves 34
FX multilateral real effective exchange rate (REER) 35
Disclosure appendix 37
Disclaimer 38
Contents

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关键词：市场研究报告 研究报告 市场研究 固定收益 汇丰银行 研究报告 收益 汇丰银行 南美