汇丰银行：全球新兴市场货币汇率研究报告2009年7月

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For LatAm, this month we present a new
BRL valuation model, and examine QE
in Chile
􀀗 For Asia, we examine RMB valuation,
look at Asian trade accounts and
reserves, and focus on INR and THB
􀀗 In EMEA, we look at regional BoP trends,
and focus on KZT and TRY
Unguarded optimism
As we go to print, the market correction of June/1H-July
appears to have run its course. Risky assets are again on the rise;
and given the strength of correlations recently, that means USDEM
lower. While the resilience in the economic data in Asia has
been less surprising, the strength of the data in the US, and a raft
of positive earnings results, has been more so.
Markets are increasingly pricing this global recovery as being a
‘normal’ one, and while our global economists may disagree,
the news flow is currently hinting at a different story. That
suggests that while local assets may appear to be getting
expensive, ongoing revisions to the macro outlook are such that
subsequent adjustments to ‘fair value’ estimates could prompt
significant revisions to these assessments. Like it or not, it still
comes down to the data.
Beyond pure macro issues, USD diversification remains an
important issue for USD-EM. On this front, the next US-China
Strategic and Economic Dialogue is in Washington on 27 and
28 July. Given President Hu’s early leaving from the G8
summit earlier this month, the market will be looking for any
indications on the USD’s reserve status and China’s attitude
towards holding US assets.

Model portfolio and trade
recommendations 3
Chart of the month 4
Latam at a glance 6
Brazil: A new FX valuation model 7
Chile: Pulling QE out of the hat 15
Asia at a glance 19
Is the RMB still undervalued? 20
Asian currency valuation 27
Asian currencies to lose external support 31
The dashboard this month 35
THB: No reason for strength 38
INR depreciation to come 42
EMEA at a glance 45
Balance of payments lend FX support 46
Kazakhstan: KZT devaluation? Not this time 50
Turkey: The case for 2nd-generation fiscal reforms 56
Real effective exchange rates 61
Key global economic and FX
assumptions 66
Currency reference table 68
Emerging markets FX strategy
biographies 69
Disclosure appendix 74
Disclaimer 75

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