摩根斯坦利：香港证券市场投资策略报告2009年7月

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Hong Kong Strategy
Long-term Bullish, Near-term
Neutral – Favor Banks and
Consumer
Investment conclusion: Earnings growth and ROE
have bottomed. Despite the rally year to date, we are
still in the trough half of a recovering economic cycle,
and high trailing P/E and low P/B combine into a
long-term buying signal, implying 32.5% long-term MSCI
Hong Kong upside before it reaches the peak half of an
economic cycle. In the near term, though, valuation is
not attractive, momentum looks exhausted and V-shape
Hong Kong/China GDP recoveries seem fully priced in.
Half-cycle strategy: Hong Kong, as a service/exportdriven
city economy, and as a highly efficient and
transparent capital hub, lacks structural themes for
buy-and-hold investors. On the other hand, this helps
Hong Kong to produce reliable cyclical patterns in its
economy and stock market, as the cycles are rarely
disrupted by structural changes. The ideal strategy is to
invest for ‘half-a-cycle’ in Hong Kong, as a full-cycle exit
could be close to or even below entry levels.
Favor banks and consumer: In the near term, bank
and consumer stock valuations are attractive, negative
fundamentals are priced in and recovery is underway. In
the long term, earnings growth and ROE have
substantial upside to drive the sectors’ valuations. Our
favorite picks are ICBC Asia, Dah Sing Financial, HKEX
and TVB.
Neutral on property and utilities: In the near term,
valuations just seem fair, ROE is not stressed out and a
sharp recovery is already in the share price. In property
sector, relatively, we like low valuation and consumer
recovery related plays such as Great Eagle and Hysan.

Contents
Hong Kong Strategy: Long-term Bullish, Near-term Neutral – Favor Banks and Consumer…………………………......3
Sector Strategies: Invest in Cyclicality, Not Volatility…………..………………………………………………………….....15
Appendix – Hong Kong Economy and Stock Market in a Nutshell:
Trade the Desynchronized US Monetary and China Economic Cycles.……………………………………………………..36

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