国际商业观察：中国09年3季度国防与安全报告

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【名称及出版时间】：BMI_China_Defence_and_Security_Report_Q3_2009
【来源】：BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：68
【目录或简介】：

ONTENTS
Executive Summary .........................................................................................................................................5
SWOT Analysis.................................................................................................................................................7
          China Defence Industry SWOT.............................................................................................................................................................................. 7
          China Security SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 7
          China Political SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
          China Economic SWOT ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
          China Business Environment SWOT...................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Political Overview...........................................................................................................................................10
         Domestic Politics................................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
         Foreign Policy ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Security Risk Analysis...................................................................................................................................13
    BMI’s Security Ratings ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 13
          Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings..................................................................................................................................................... 13
          Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ................................................................................................................................ 14
     City Terrorism Rating............................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
         Methodological Overview.................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
          Table: Methodology............................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
          Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index.............................................................................................................................................................. 17
     China’s Security Risk Rating .................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
North And South Asia Security Overview....................................................................................................19
Domestic Security Overview.........................................................................................................................24
    Internal Security Situation ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 24
         External Security Situation .................................................................................................................................................................................. 25
         Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO)....................................................................................................................................................... 25
          China-US Relations ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 26
          China-Japan Relations ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 27
          China-Taiwan Relations ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
          China-Tibet Relations.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
          China-Korea Relations ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 29
          China-Russia Relations........................................................................................................................................................................................ 29
          China-India Relations.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
         EU Arms Embargo............................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Armed Forces And Government Spending .................................................................................................32
         Armed Forces ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
          Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2008 (‘000 personnel)....................................................................................................................................... 32
         International Deployments................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
          Table: China’s Deployments................................................................................................................................................................................ 35
         Joint Operations And Exercises........................................................................................................................................................................... 35
         Peace Mission 2005............................................................................................................................................................................................. 35
          Weapons Of Mass Destruction (WMD)................................................................................................................................................................ 36
Market Overview.............................................................................................................................................38

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关键词：asia pacific Organisation Internation Methodology Destruction 商业 国际 国防 观察

Recent Changes ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
         Arms Trade Overview .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
         Industry Trends And Developments ..................................................................................................................................................................... 41
         Procurement Trends And Developments.............................................................................................................................................................. 43
          Competitive Landscape........................................................................................................................................................................................ 44
          Table: Key Players In China’s Defence Sector.................................................................................................................................................... 44
Industry Forecast Scenario...........................................................................................................................47
          Table: China’s Military Personnel, 2004-2013 (‘000)......................................................................................................................................... 47
          Table: China’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2005-2012............................................................................................................................ 48
         Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario................................................................................................................................................................ 49
         Macroeconomic Outlook...................................................................................................................................................................................... 49
          Table: China – Economic Activity, 2006-2013 .................................................................................................................................................... 51
Company Profiles...........................................................................................................................................52
         Aviation Industries Of China I (AVIC I) .............................................................................................................................................................. 52
         Aviation Industries of China II (AVIC II)............................................................................................................................................................. 54
          China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) ............................................................................................................................................... 55
          China North Industries Group Corporation (CNGC) .......................................................................................................................................... 56
          China South Industries Group Corporation (CSG).............................................................................................................................................. 57
          China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC)............................................................................................................................. 58
          China Aerospace Science And Technology Corporation...................................................................................................................................... 59
          China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) .................................................................................................................................................... 60
          China Nuclear Engineering-Construction Group (CNECC)................................................................................................................................ 61
          Chengdu Aircraft Company ................................................................................................................................................................................. 62
Country Snapshot: China Demographic Data.............................................................................................63
          Section 1: Population........................................................................................................................................................................................... 63
          Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030........................................................................................................................................................ 63
          Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................... 64
          Section 2: Education And Healthcare.................................................................................................................................................................. 64
          Table: Education, 2002-2005 .............................................................................................................................................................................. 64
          Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030........................................................................................................................................................................ 64
          Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power.................................................................................................................................................. 65
          Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006.......................................................................................................................................................... 65
          Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)................................................................................................................................................ 65
          Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2005-2012 ................................................................................................................................. 66
BMI Forecast Modelling.................................................................................................................................67
         How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts.......................................................................................................................................................... 67
         Defence Industry.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 67
     Sources ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 68

xecutive Summary

               There has been little change in China’s political landscape in recent months.

               The 50th anniversary of Tibet's failed uprising against Beijing passed by with little incident on March 10,

               as did the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square protests on June 4 aside from poignant scenes in

               Hong Kong where at least 100,000 people turned out for a candlelit vigil in Victoria Park. This was

               largely due to a concerted effort by Chinese authorities to stifle dissent. There has as yet been no response

               from Chinese authorities to the request by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to give full details of

               events, and resulting fatalities, from those momentous events two decades ago.

               The main issue in China, as everywhere else, remains the economy. The country has not been immune to

               the global recession. The sharp economic downturn has been most hard felt in the job market, with

               unemployment in urban areas – the only figure released by Chinese authorities – hitting 4.3% at the end

               of March.

               Following years of persistent double-digit growth (during which period Chinese citizens largely refrained

               from greater calls for democracy and overlooked the Communist Party's shortcomings in return for rising

               standards of living), rapidly weakening economic activity is now threatening to erode the confidence

               established in the government during the most recent boom period.

               China announced a CNY4trn (US$590bn) stimulus package in November, which it hopes will support the

               200,000 new jobs it needs to create each year for university and school leavers, as well as stimulate

               domestic consumption as its export industry continues to suffer. A series of infrastructure and public

               works at its heart could allay some of the distress citizens are feeling from the fiscal climate.

               The Chinese arms industry continues to boom, however, and we have made few changes to our outlook

               for the industry. That being said, economic difficulties, which are likely to continue, at least in the short

               term, could stunt growth in the sector.

               This quarter, we have introduced a significant new aspect to BMI's defence reports, which is the City

               Terrorism Rating (CTR), which assesses the risk of a terrorist attack. The CTR takes into account the

               overall BMI Terrorism Rating for the country in question. It also incorporates the ‘prevalence’ of

               terrorism, which recognises the frequency of attacks, and whether the city is a target for terrorists. The

               CTR also recognises the ‘threat' of terrorism in terms of the likely numbers of victims and the ability of

               groups to launch sustained campaigns.