荷兰银行：中国保险行业研究报告2009年6月

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Contents
Good beta: growth back to the fore 3
We expect good growth in life insurance NBV and P&C underwriting profits, as
margins and the macro environment improve. Asset reflation, a steep yield curve
and insurers’ redeployment into equities/corporate bonds should also help raise
investment yields.
3
Life: good NBV growth, improving channel/product mix 3
P&C: stabilising pricing, good premium growth 4
Asset reflation bodes well for insurance companies 6
A steep yield curve is especially positive to life insurers 7
Well-placed for asset redeployment and yield pick-up 8
Under-rated delta: regulatory and corporate reform to improve profitability
structurally 10
We see large insurers as the key beneficiaries of the structural improvement in the
regulatory landscape, which should raise life insurance NBV growth and P&C
pricing. We also see good progress in China Life’s agency reform and PICC’s claims
management.
10
Strengthened regulation of late 10
Increased scrutiny under new ‘tiered monitoring system’ 11
Stronger regulatory enforcement 11
Improved profitability; large players the key beneficiaries 11
Corporate reform a further kicker to margin improvement 13
Unique alpha: investment liberalisation to raise long-term yields, sustainable
valuations 14
New investment channels and bond market development have accelerated of late,
and will likely remain key secular drivers for China insurers, leading to stronger
recurring yields, steadier earnings/EV progression and higher sustainable valuations
over the longer term.
14
Bond market development has accelerated 14
Continued investment liberalisation 17
Higher recurring yields; steadier earnings/EV progression 17
Higher sustainable valuations in the longer term 17
Still mid-cycle valuations 19
Despite the share-price run-up ytd, we are positive on China insurers given
structural growth prospects and still mid-cycle valuations. Our top picks are China
Life and PICC, and we would buy on any share-price pull-backs.
19
Top picks: China Life and PICC 19
Key risks and challenges 22
We see capital market performance as the key swing factor for insurers’ earnings
and EV progression. Longer term, banks expanding into the insurance sector may
pose challenges to insurers that depend highly on bancassurance growth.
22
Risks to our central scenario 22
Long-term challenge: rising competition from banks 22
Company profiles 23
China Life Insurance 24
PICC Property & Casualty 31
Ping An Insurance 37

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关键词：行业研究报告 中国保险 研究报告 荷兰银行 保险行业 中国 研究报告 行业 荷兰银行

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