摩根大通：欧洲石油开采设备行业研究报告2009年8月

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European Oil Services
Increasing estimates and price targets; upgrade
Saipem to Neutral
European Oil Services
Amy WongAC
(44-20) 7325-9460
amy.wong@jpmorgan.com
Kim Fustier
(44-20) 7325-1719
kim.a.fustier@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
For Specialist Sales advice, please
contract:
Hamish W Clegg
(44-20) 7325-0878
hamish.w.clegg@jpmorgan.com
Equity Ratings and Price Targets
Mkt Cap Price Rating Price Target
Company Symbol ($ mn) Currency Price Cur Prev Cur Prev
Technip TECF.PA 6,762.2 EUR 42.95 N n/c 50.50 30.00
Saipem SPMI.MI 12,096.1 EUR 19.23 N UW 21.00 14.00
Subsea 7 Inc SUB.OL 1,726.3 NOK 74.41 N n/c 81.00 50.00
Acergy SA ACY.OL 2,167.5 NOK 66.97 UW n/c 65.00 50.00
Source: Company data, Reuters, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as at 03 Aug 09.
See page 26 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
Figure 1: Euro Oil Services rel Euro Oils
(SXEP), -24% from 1 year ago
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Jul-
08
Oct-
08
Jan-
09
Apr-
09
Jul-
09
-24%
Source: Bloomberg
Please see our note on CGG
Veritas “More bad news out of the
way”, published today.
• Four key themes from 2Q results so far. Technip, Saipem, Subsea 7 and
Acergy have been the four main engineering & construction (E&C)
companies to report and we observe four main themes: 1) 2Q op. results
beat consensus on avg by 36%. 2) Mgmt unanimously guided to margin
compression in 2H2009 and into 2010. 3) Backlogs as at 30 June 2009 are
supportive of 09/10E revenues. 4) Service companies are experiencing
higher tendering activity.
• Pace of contract awards to pick up, positive catalysts for contractors.
Tendering activity is increasing and Subsea 7 sees $8.5bn worth of contracts
in the industry tendering pipeline. We identify key deepwater and LNG
projects which we expect to be awarded in the next 6-12 months in Table 5.
• Margins are a key concern. As the contracts negotiated in a good pricing
environment from 2 years ago draw to a close, EBIT margins are set to
decline in 2H2009 and 2010. We forecast an average 3.3%-point decline in
EBIT margins in 2H09 vs. 1H09 for these four E&C contractors.
• Roll forward end-June 2010 price targets, average increase 52%. We
change the basis of our PT to an average EV/CE based on ROACE and
EV/Sales based on EBIT, which is a better indicator for operational results.
Previously, we used EV/CE and P/E but net earnings are volatile due to oneoffs
below operating results.
• Increasing 2009 and 2010 estimates. We update our models post 2Q09
results and increase 2009 estimates in the range of 5-15%. For 2010, our
estimates change in the range of -6% to +43%.
• Upgrade Saipem to Neutral (from Underweight). Saipem’s large backlog
provides earnings visibility beyond 2010 and its good execution track record
merits a premium to the sector. Its share price has increased 60% but it has
underperformed its key peer, Technip by 36%. The stock is trading at 8%
discount to its long-term 2yrd forward P/E of 16x and on par with the sector
and on historical relative P/E and no longer warrants an underweight rating.
• Our order of preference for the engineering and construction (E&C)
subsector: From most to least preferred: Technip (N) with 18% upside,
Saipem (N) 9% upside, Subsea 7 (N) 8% upside and Acergy (UW) 3%
downside. We believe that the E&C subsector still has upside and also see
upside in the seismic in a recovery of exploration & production spend.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 石油开采 行业研究 摩根大通 研究报告 欧洲 摩根大通 设备 石油开采