Investment conclusion: We upgrade S. Korea Autos &
Auto Parts industry view to Attractive from In-line. We
upgrade Kia Motors (KMC) to Overweight from
Equal-weight. We believe Korean automakers are well
positioned to benefit from growing demand for compact
cars in global markets due mainly to their focus on fuel
efficient compact cars. Thanks to narrowing gap
between brand and quality recognition as well as more
availability of competitive new models based on
cost-efficient platform sharing, Hyundai and Kia could
gain further market share beyond 2010, in our view. We
favor, in order: Hyundai Motor (HMC) and KMC followed
by Hyundai Mobis. Halla Climate Control (upgraded to
OW) is our top pick among small- to mid-cap stocks in
our Auto Parts coverage (see today’s separate report on
Halla).
Upgrade Kia Motors to Overweight from
Equal-weight: Despite near 80% outperformance
relative to the market, we upgrade Kia Motors to
Overweight, mainly because of improved earnings
outlook. We have revised up 2009-10e EPS estimates
by 31.7% and 23.3%, respectively, on better sales
outlook helped by more new models using shared
platforms as well as low inventory. As a result of
improved earnings, balance sheet risk should decrease,
as gearing should fall from 70% to 51% by 2011.
Risks to our view: We believe the appreciating KRW
against the USD and JPY remains the biggest risk for
the sector. Our FX assumption for 2010 is W1,150/USD,
down 8.2% from W1,253 in 2009. However, higher
utilization arising from new “volume” model additions
should help support margins.