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The Brighter Side of the Bear Market…In our view, 2009 is likely to be a year fraught with challenges as well as opportunities. Note that: 1) historically, a big down
year for the stock market has often been followed by up years. 2) A stock market rebound often precedes economic recovery by ~six months. 3) The Internet sector is the fastest-growing consumer sector in China, with Chinese online population likely up 30% YoY in 2009. 4) Chinese Internet and media listcos likely enjoy the “fattest” margins (30-40% for operating margin) of all Chinese companies. 5) In an era when cash is king, most Chinese Internet and media listcos are debt free, with some having cash accounting for the bulk of their market value (e.g., SinoMedia, AirMedia, and China Digital TV) and most buying back their own shares. 6) Chinese Internet leaders (e.g., Alibaba, Ctrip) have better survival skills than most peers in a bear market, as they have thrived on sector-wide “recessions” before. 7) Internet companies tend to be anti-cyclical, as they offer cheaper goods/entertainment and more “sticky” services than their offline rivals. 8) Chinese Internet companies are trading at all- time lows, with stock pricesimplying unreasonably pessimistic outlook.
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