印度石化行业研究报告2009年8月

相似文件 换一批

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

Investment Summary ........................................................................................................................ 3
De facto change in retail auto fuel pricing is under way .......................................................................3
Decline in marketing losses to improve OMCs’ margins .......................................................................3
Domestic GRMs to exceed USD4.5/bbl in FY12f ...................................................................................4
OMC stocks deserve to be re‐rated further ..........................................................................................4
Reform in pricing of retail auto fuels already visible ......................................................................... 5
De facto deregulation is under way ......................................................................................................5
Likely to face fewer obstacles now........................................................................................................6
Slow and phased process expected.......................................................................................................8
Under‐recoveries likely to be cINR260bn in FY12f ................................................................................8
Margins to surge on lower marketing losses..................................................................................... 9
FY10f marketing margins to improve on lower product prices .............................................................9
Base case: Under‐recoveries likely to be cINR222bn in FY10f.............................................................11
EBITDA projected to be cINR259.8bn in FY10f ....................................................................................11
35% higher EBITDA, if losses on LPG and SKO are reimbursed ...........................................................11
Deferring deregulation to reduce FY11f EBITDA by 15%.....................................................................11
Domestic GRMs to expand beyond USD4.5/bbl in FY12f ................................................................ 12
Global consumption likely to revive post 1H2010f…...........................................................................12
…to lead to low product spreads.........................................................................................................13
Utilization to start improving in 2011f as more refineries shut ..........................................................14
Crude spare capacity likely to rise to c4.5mbpd in 2012f....................................................................15
Light‐heavy spreads likely to be cUSD1.7/bbl in 2012f .......................................................................16
Benchmark Singapore GRMs to average at cUSD3.0/bbl in 2009f......................................................17
Indian refiners likely to enjoy higher premium than Singapore GRMs ...............................................18
Among OMCs, IOCL likely to enjoy highest GRMs...............................................................................19
Valuation: Stocks merit further re‐rating on de facto deregulation................................................ 21
Domestic OMCs traded at a discount to international players ...........................................................21
Re‐rating likely....................................................................................................................................21
Valuation based on weights given to P/E and P/B ..............................................................................21
Risks to our estimates .........................................................................................................................22
Annexure I: To reduce cyclicality, companies looking at integration .............................................. 23
Global industry structure.....................................................................................................................23
Changing milieu: ‘Majors’ better equipped to handle cyclicality ........................................................25
Regulatory changes fostered competition in most countries .............................................................26
Where does India stand?.....................................................................................................................26
Annexure II: Capacity delays led to sharp rise in refinery utilization .............................................. 29
Oil consumption grew at a CAGR of c1.3% from 2000 to 2008...........................................................29
Crude oil supply grew at just 1.1% from 2000 to 2008 .......................................................................30
Refinery capacity growth lagged throughput growth till 2008............................................................30
Increase in light‐heavy spreads added to the refining margins...........................................................32

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 石化行业 行业研究 Deregulation 研究报告 行业 印度 石化