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2009年世界贸易报告.PDFCONTENTS
ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS ...............................................................................................................................vii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................................................. ix
DISCLAIMER .........................................................................................................................................................................x
FOREWORD BY THE DIRECTOR-GENERAL ..........................................................................................................xi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................. xiii
I THE TRADE SITUATION IN 2008-09 ............................................................................................................... 1
A INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................................... 1
B OVERVIEW OF TRADE AND PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENTS IN 2008-09 ...................................... 3
C MERCHANDISE TRADE, VOLUME (REAL) TERMS, 2008 ......................................................................... 5
D MERCHANDISE AND SERVICES TRADE, VALUE (NOMINAL) TERMS, 2008 ................................... 7
II TRADE POLICY COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCY MEASURES ............................................. 19
A INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................... 19
B FLEXIBILITY IN TRADE AGREEMENTS ........................................................................................................ 21
1. Economic theories of trade agreements and the role of f lexibilities .......................................................... 21
2. Circumstances for suspension of commitments and f lexibility measures
built into the WTO agreements .....................................................................................................................30
3. Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................................39
C ECONOMICS, DISCIPLINES AND PRACTICES ........................................................................................... 47
1. Safeguards .......................................................................................................................................................... 47
2. Dumping and anti-dumping measures .......................................................................................................... 65
3. Subsidies and countervailing duties ...............................................................................................................84
4. Other selected measures of contingency protection ..................................................................................102
5. Choosing among different measures ............................................................................................................ 114
6. Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................................... 117
D EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ......................................................................................................................................127
1. Patterns and trends in the use of contingency measures ...........................................................................127
2. Contingency measures and the multilateral trading system ....................................................................142
3. Factors explaining the use of trade contingency measures .......................................................................147
4. The economic impact of contingency measures .........................................................................................152
5. Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................................156
E CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................................................159
BIBLIOGRAPHY ..............................................................................................................................................................161
TECHNICAL NOTES .....................................................................................................................................................169
lIST OF TaBlES, CHarTS aNd BOXES
I THE TRADE SITUATION IN 2008-09
Tables
Table 1 GDP and merchandise trade by region, 2006-08 ........................................................................................... 6
Table 2 World exports of merchandise and commercial services, 2008 .................................................................... 8
Table 3 World exports of commercial services by major category, 2008 ................................................................... 9
Charts
Chart 1 Real GDP and trade growth of OECD countries, 2007-08 .......................................................................... 1
Chart 2 Prices of selected primary products, January 2002-January 2009 ............................................................... 4
Chart 3 Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade and GDP, 1998-2008 ................................................. 5
Chart 4 Real merchandise trade growth by region, 2008 ............................................................................................. 6
Chart 5 Export prices of selected primary products, 2006-08 .................................................................................... 7
Chart 6 Dollar exchange rates of selected major currencies, January 2000-January 2009 ..................................... 8
Appendix
App. Table 1 World merchandise trade by region and selected country, 2008 ....................................................... 13
App. Table 2 World exports of commercial services by region and selected country, 2008 .................................. 14
App. Table 3 Merchandise trade: leading exporters and importers, 2008 ............................................................... 15
App. Table 4 Merchandise trade: leading exporters and importers, 2008 (Excluding intra-EU (27) trade) ...... 16
App. Table 5 Leading exporters and importers in world trade in commercial services, 2008 .............................. 17
App. Chart 1 Monthly merchandise exports and imports of selected economies, January 2006-February 2009 ..... 11
II TRADE POLICY COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCY MEASURES
B. FLEXIBILITY IN TRADE AGREEMENTS
Tables
Table 1 A categorization of circumstances and arguments for a temporary increase in protection ..................... 31
Boxes
Box 1 Terms-of-trade and the international cost-shifting problem .......................................................................22
Box 2 Time-inconsistency ............................................................................................................................................23
Box 3 Commitment versus f lexibility: the case of safeguards in the GATT and WTO .................................... 25
C. ECONOMICS, DISCIPLINES AND PRACTICES
Tables
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