Contents
Macroeconomic policy update ....................................................................................... 3
Monthly economic calendar ........................................................................................... 3
Themes......................................................................................................................... 4
Rebalancing macro policy 4
Tightening banks’ capital need 11
Curb industrial overinvestment 12
Interpreting the BDI plunge 14
Employment challenges 16
Major indicators revision 18
Macroeconomic monitor .............................................................................................. 19
GDP growth 19
Industrial performance 20
Sources of growth 25
Money and inflation 30
Market performance and rates 33
Appendices .................................................................................................................. 37
1. 12-month major economic indicators 37
2. 12-month major industrial products 39
3. Industrial profitability 40
4. Urban fixed-asset-investment growth by sector 41
5. Key economic forecasts 43