摩根大通：台湾证券市场投资策略报告2009年8月

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Market Decomposition .............................................................5
Taiwan dividend yields through time......................................6
Key Factor Observations .........................................................7
The JPM Q-Score - A Composite Approach.........................14
Q-Score Model Performance in Taiwan................................16
Summary of backtesting results ...........................................18
EARNINGS Factors.................................................................21
Composite Forward Earnings Momentum (1Mth + 3Mth) ...22
Forward Earnings Momentum (1Mth Change) .....................23
Forward Earnings Momentum (3Mth Change) .....................24
Forward Earnings Mom (3Mth Chg) / Co-Eff of Variation....25
5 years Historical Earnings Growth......................................26
Forecast Earnings Growth FY1 to FY2 .................................27
Net Revisions to FY2 [Up-Down]/[Up+Down].......................28
Net Revisions to FY1 [Up-Down]/[Up+Down].......................29
PRICE Factors ........................................................................31
12 Month Price Momentum....................................................32
12 Month Price Momentum adjusted for volatility ...............33
RSI 10 day ...............................................................................37
Price Accel 6M ........................................................................38
Percent off 52 Week High ......................................................39
QUALITY Factors....................................................................41
Composite Co-Efficient of Variation (Avg of FY1 and FY2) 42
Number of Consensus Estimates (FY1) ...............................43
Historical Return on Equity ...................................................44
Change in ROE between Current and 12 Mths Prior ...........45
Asset Turnover .......................................................................46
Sales Growth ..........................................................................47
Payout Ratio ...........................................................................48
Interest Cover .........................................................................49
12M Change in Asset Turnover.............................................50
Gearing....................................................................................51
12M Change In EBIT Margin ..................................................52

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