德意志银行：德国证券市场投资策略报告2009年8月

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Table of Contents
Summary ................................................................................................................................ 1
Liquidity trends in pictures....................................................................................................4
Economic forecasts................................................................................................................. 5
1. Special Topics ..................................................................................................................... 7
1.1 The Bundestag election is in the offing ............................................................ 8
1.2 Q2 FY 09 Reporting season in Germany......................................................... 22
1.3 Understanding the IPO cycles in Germany and Europe................................ 24
2. German Top Picks and Performance............................................................................... 33
2.1 German Top Picks............................................................................................. 34
2.2 Performance...................................................................................................... 35
3. Economic and Earnings trends ........................................................................................ 37
3.1 Earnings revisions and growth........................................................................ 38
3.2 Earnings and revisions by company ............................................................... 40
4. Equity market valuation ...................................................................................................43
4.1 P/E ratio............................................................................................................. 44
4.2 EV/NCI vs. mid-cycle CROCI/COC .................................................................. 45
4.3 German multiples in pictures .......................................................................... 46
5. Timing ............................................................................................................................... 47
5.1 Supply and demand of equities ...................................................................... 48
5.2 What are derivatives markets telling us? .......................................................49
5.3 Directors’ Buying declines further .................................................................. 50
Appendix............................................................................................................................... 53
A.1 Performance analysis....................................................................................... 54
A.2 Recommendation list*..................................................................................... 57
A.3 Recommendation changes.............................................................................. 58
A.4 Forecast earnings changes.............................................................................. 59
A.5 Deutsche Bank German universe.................................................................... 61
A.6 Sector and segment agglomerations ............................................................. 66
Who covers what? ................................................................................................................ 76
Reports published on German companies in the last five months .................................. 77

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