汇丰银行：中国电解铝行业研究报告2009年9月

相似文件 换一批

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

In spite of recent optimism, aluminium
remains in structural overcapacity
􀀗 Recent rally has encouraged a new
wave of supply from idled capacity
􀀗 Assume coverage of Zhongwang at
OW(V), keep UW(V) Chalco and Hindalco,
remain N(V) Nalco and Alumina
Near term overbought, structural issues remain. Over
recent months, aluminium prices have staged a sharp rally
driven by their laggard position, a slowing rate of stock build
and a widely held view that a large amount of LME stocks
are tied in financing deals. However, at above USD1800/t,
over 90% of the industry is now cash positive, which we
believe has triggered capacity restarts. In addition, the recent
rally and a contraction of the LME contango could see metal
exit from financing deals back onto the market. At current
levels, we expect a correction in prices, keeping LME price
forecasts largely unchanged at USD71c/lb (+4%) and
USD75c/lb (no change) for 2009e and 2010e respectively.
1H09 marking the bottom of the current cycle but
rebound forecast to be weak. With the exception of
Chalco’s worse than expected 1H result, aluminium stocks
broadly met or beat the market’s weak expectations. That
said, we believe weak utilisation rates (while improving)
may continue to suppress the earnings recovery. Post results
and our updated aluminium forecasts, we raise earnings by
an average of 5% in both the 2009e and 2010e years.
What’s in the price? With the global economy showing
increasing signs of bottoming out, the market has been quick
to return stocks back to historical mid cycle valuations, if not
more. Our analysis of average ROE achieved during the
‘boom’ years (2002-2008) highlights that the market is
currently discounting a return to these conditions. The
exception to this is Chalco, where implied ROE is currently
24%, against 19% achieved during the boom years.
How to play aluminium? At this point, we prefer
downstream aluminium opportunities to upstream plays. In
this report, we assume coverage of China Zhongwang
(1333.HK), the world’s third largest extruder and China’s
largest. Its downstream focus contrasts to the upstream focus
of other stocks in our coverage universe. Given its leverage
to China’s transport spending, we initiate with an OW (V).

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：行业研究报告 电解铝行业 研究报告 汇丰银行 行业研究 中国 研究报告 行业 汇丰银行 电解铝

SB想钱想疯了吧

论坛币 60000 个
@@@@
显然是不让下啊

哥哥，这个报告又不是你写的。。。

太贵了吧，不让看？

这傻B要干嘛

????????这么贵……

这么贵呀

要命啊，这么贵

疯了完全