摩根斯坦利：欧洲制造业研究报告2009年9月

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Recovery in sight — upgrading Sandvik to OW:
Leading indicators, global trade data, auto sales and
Kennametal monthly orders all point to an unexpectedly
early recovery in 2H09. We upgrade Sandvik to OW, as
we think the outlook is much more attractive than is
currently being priced in, but downgrade Assa to EW
due to limited upside surprises. We still prefer opex and
mining companies and hence our other key OWs include
Atlas and SKF.
Mining capex to stage a comeback: We have been
surprised by the rapid rise in commodity prices. While a
few mining companies have announced higher capex
budgets already, the market has not fully discounted the
potential benefits for mining-exposed companies. In our
base case, we see a robust recovery in mining capex in
2010 — mining is likely to surprise positively, in our view.
Consensus forecasts too bearish in 2010: For the
mechanicals sector, consensus sees no EPS growth in
2010, in contrast to our expectation of 10-15% growth.
While some companies do indeed have longer backlogs
that will hamper recovery progress, it is hard to see how
the sector EPS will not grow as the economic recovery
gathers momentum after a weak 2009.
Valuations not particularly attractive: We are more
positive but not outright bullish because at 15x 2010e
P/E and 11x EV/EBIT, sector valuation already
discounts a robust recovery, leaving little room for
multiple expansion. Significant share price moves will
have to come from upward earnings revisions.

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