德意志银行：美国化工行业研究报告2009年9月

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Falling natural gas prices support continued export opportunities
The highest oil-to-gas ratio in 20 years coupled with operating problems in the
Middle East continues to drive robust US exports of ethylene derivatives. With
natural gas prices continuing to plunge, the US cost advantage vs. Europe and
Asia is likely to sustain export opportunities well into Q4. However, as Middle East
production issues are resolved and new capacity starts up in Asia, we expect
exports to be pressured. With ethylene margins constrained by modest GDP
growth prospects in Q4, we remain cautious on commodity chemicals.
July-August ethylene contract prices unsettled; 3-month settlement possible
July-August contract ethylene prices remain unsettled and could be headed for an
unusual 3-month settlement in September. Producers and consumers remain at
loggerheads over fluctuating input costs. Ethylene prices rose 3 cents/lb in June to
33.5 cents/lb. Spot ethylene prices rose 3.5c/lb to 25.5c/lb in August, reversing the
previous month’s 3c/lb decline. Export demand remained strong in August,
supported by advantaged ethane-based costs vs. naphtha-based production in
Europe. Reflecting changes in feedstock costs, we expect August ethylene
contract prices to fall 2.5 cents/lb to 31 cents/lb.
Spot ethylene margins struggle towards breakeven in August
Average ethylene production costs rose 2.5c/lb in August to 25c/lb (down 47%
YoY), reflecting higher costs for all feedstocks despite sharply lower natural gas.
Costs were also held in check by higher co-product credits. US ethane is the
lowest cost feedstock ex- the Middle East and Canada, enjoying a 14 cents/lb
(39%) cost advantage compared with Western Europe. Spot ethylene margins
improved slightly and are nearly breakeven. With feedstock costs expected to
remain flat and spot prices expected to improve modestly, we believe spot
ethylene margins will manage to stay slightly above breakeven in September.
Polyethylene (PE) price increase fails to stick on second try
High density polyethylene prices were unchanged in August at 68 cents/lb. The 4
cents/lb price originally set for July was postponed for a second month as a 5 c/lb
drop in production costs in July rebounded only partially (2.5 c/lb) in August. With
PE in China priced at a significant premium to the US, export demand remains
strong. Reflecting higher input costs, HDPE margins fell 3c/lb to 17c/lb in August.
Despite low inventories and tight supplies, with production costs subdued we do
not expect the 4c PE price increase to stick this month.
Acetic acid prices rise in Asia partly due to Celanese force majeure
Q3 US acetic acid prices were flat with Q2 at 48-52 cents/lb. Higher methanol
feedstock prices in August were offset by dramatically lower natural gas prices (at
7-year lows). In China, acetic acid prices rose Rmb300-400/ton to Rmb3000-
3250/ton ($440-$475/ton) in August in response to tight supply conditions and a
force majeure declaration by Celanese on its Asian acetic acid supplies thru Sept.
The lack of a sharp spike in acetic acid spot prices following the force majeure
announcement was indicative of continued weak demand in Asia. .

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