摩根斯坦利：韩国金融行业研究报告2009年9月

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Contents
Investment Case............................................................................................................................................................. 3
Recent Outperformance But Still Relatively Inexpensive ........................................................................................................................................3
Valuation at Historical Mid-cycle Level....................................................................................................................................................................4
Near-term Obstacles ...............................................................................................................................................................................................4
Recovery to Boost Valuations Beyond Mid-cycle Levels ........................................................................................................................................6
Structural Changes Needed to Return to Peak Valuation .......................................................................................................................................6
Stock Recommendations .............................................................................................................................................. 8
Scenario Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................ 11
Theme 1: Worst Seems Over with Expedited Credit Cycle....................................................................................... 15
Theme 2: NIMs Rising; Further Improvement Requires Effective ALM................................................................... 22
Theme 3: Pockets of Strength in Transaction Flow Business ................................................................................. 27
Theme 4: Outlook for ROE – 10% for 2010, 12% Normalized ................................................................................... 33
Theme 5: Structural Changes Needed to Return to Peak Valuations...................................................................... 39
Company Analysis ....................................................................................................................................................... 45
Shinhan Financial Group: Most Leveraged to a Recovery Scenario.......................................................................47
Risk-Reward Snapshot: SFG (055550.KS, W44,150, OW, PT W53,000) ............................................................................................................51
Industrial Bank of Korea: Benefiting from Specialized Strengths ...........................................................................53
Risk-Reward Snapshot: IBK (024110.KS, W14,400, OW, PT W18,000)..............................................................................................................57
Korea Exchange Bank: Option with a Yield ...............................................................................................................59
Risk-Reward Snapshot: KEB (004940.KS, W11,450, OW, PT W14,000).............................................................................................................63
Busan Bank: New Structure as Catalyst.....................................................................................................................65
Risk-Reward Snapshot: BSB (005280.KS, W11,550, OW, PT W14,500).............................................................................................................69
Woori Financial Group: Addressing Operational Issues; Others Remain ..............................................................71
Risk-Reward Snapshot: WFG (053000.KS, W15,700, EW, PT W14,500)............................................................................................................75
Hana Financial Group: Improving with the Key Being New Initiatives....................................................................77
Risk-Reward Snapshot: HFG (086790.KS, W35,950, EW, PT W37,000).............................................................................................................81
Daegu Bank: Quality Bank but Lacks Opportunities.................................................................................................83
Risk-Reward Snapshot: DGB (005270.KS, W15,900, EW, PT W16,000) ............................................................................................................87
Appendix ....................................................................................................................................................................... 88

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关键词：行业研究报告 摩根斯坦利 研究报告 摩根斯坦 金融行业 摩根斯坦利 研究报告 韩国 行业

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