摩根斯坦利：欧洲化工行业研究报告2009年9月

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Chemicals
Croda & Yule Catto Now Top
Picks in UK Chemicals
Reviewing our ratings, price targets and estimates:
On average, our EPS estimates rise 8.6%, 14.6% and
13.9% over the next three years. Yule Catto and Victrex
see the largest increases in earnings. We have
increased our price targets across each name (see table
on the right for full details).
Upgrading Yule Catto to Overweight: Yule Catto is
one of the cheapest companies within the European
Chemicals space, trading on a current year PE of 7.9x
(historical average is 13.7x). We believe leverage
concerns have been addressed and see the company’s
net debt target of £100m by end-2010 as achievable.
The portfolio is now almost exclusively focused on
Polymer Chemicals following a long restructuring
programme and we believe the equity market is failing to
recognise the company’s recovery potential.
Croda bull case most likely within UK chem’s: Under
a scenario where Industrial Specialties delivers an 8%
EBIT margin in 2010e, we see upside to EPS of c16%,
and upside to the current share price of >35%.
Downgrading JM to Equal-weight: Having
outperformed the FTALLSH by c8% and risen over 20%
over the last two months, JM’s share price is broadly in
line with our new price target of 1450p.
Staying Underweight Victrex: Despite material
upgrades to our Victrex estimates, the shares are
trading on their highest ever PE (c35x current year,
18.8x Sep-2010e). We believe recovery is already in the
price, despite the company’s shares continuing to
outperform.
UK chem’s upside diminishing despite upgrades:
On a market cap-weighted basis, our downgrade of JM
implies a less positive overall stance on this sub-sector.
Across Europe, our key Overweights remain Akzo Nobel,
Syngenta and Lanxess.

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