摩根斯坦利：台湾化工行业研究报告2009年9月

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Taiwan Chemicals
Lighter 4Q09 Momentum
Headwinds Coming: We upgraded our sector view in
May as we saw strong import demand from China due to
stimulus impact and inventory restocking. Since then,
consensus estimates have been raised by 2-20% as the
Street began to share our more positive view. However,
following two quarters of sector rebound, our recent
checks suggest that producers have turned more
cautious on 4Q09 outlook due to the upcoming new
capacity start-ups in China (Fujian and Dushanzi) and
the Middle East. Import demand from China may also
soften in light of increased domestic production. We
believe Taiwan chemicals producers, who have been
relying on China demand, will face increasing
headwinds as they try to maintain the strong 2Q09/3Q09
utilization rates and chemical margins. We retain our
In-Line industry view. Nevertheless, through this
weakness, we would look for opportunities to buy into
Formosa Plastics (1301.TW, OW).
Stock Recommendations: We have not made any
ratings change in this note, but are raising price targets
for our companies to incorporate a higher valuation for
FPCC (6505.TW). We left our estimates for 2H09 intact,
but after incorporating the better-than-expected 2Q09
results, we have increased our FY09 estimates by
6-41%. In terms of stock recommendations, we remain
Overweight on Formosa Plastics (1301.TW) as we
believe PVC will likely remain a safe haven in face of the
new supply glut. We retain our Equal-weight on Nanya
Plastics (1303.TW) on poor MEG pricing outlook in face
of the recent start-up of Sharq’s MEG unit. We also
retain our Equal-weight rating on Formosa Chemical
and Fiber (1326.TW) as we expect pressure on PX, PTA,
and SM pricings following the new start-ups at Fujian
(700k tons/yr PX), Ningbo (1.5mn tons/yr PTA), and
Tianjin (500k tons/yr SM). For FPCC (6505.TW), the
stock remains the most expensive refinery in the region
while the refining outlook remains lukewarm. We retain
our Underweight rating. Worth noting, even after
tweaking up our earnings forecast, we are still 9-20%
ahead of consensus for the four companies.

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