瑞士信贷：美国银行业研究报告2009年9月

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US Regional Banks
COMMENT
Revising Estimates Post Updated Guidance
Following the release of additional guidance and commentary at a competitor
conference this week, along with some capital actions, we are revising
estimates on several regional bank stocks. For more detail, please see our
modeling details beginning on page 3.
■
Comerica Inc. (CMA, Outperform): Our 3Q09 / 2010 EPS estimates for
CMA remain unchanged at -$0.85 / -$1.44 following commentary from
management at the conference. Despite expectations for significant NIM
opportunity, our 2010 EPS estimate remains significantly below consensus
due to weak fee income, and continued provisioning - mainly due to the
company's late stage SNC and CRE portfolios. We estimate that CMA is
trading at 1.1x our forecast for tangible book value (peers at 1.4x).
Accordingly, we continue to rate the shares Outperform.
■
KeyCorp (KEY, Neutral): Our 3Q09 / 2010 EPS estimates for KEY remain
unchanged at -$0.58 / -$1.64 following commentary from management at the
conference. Our 2010 EPS estimate remains significantly below consensus
due to a higher forecast for provisioning - mainly in the company's late stage
C&I/SNC and CRE portfolios. We estimate the KEY stock is trading at 6.7x
normalized EPS ($0.95 to $1.00), and continue to rate the share Neutral.
■
Regions Financial (RF, Neutral): We are not changing our EPS estimates
for RF following its commentary. Our 3Q09 / 2010 EPS estimates of -$0.18 /
-$0.48 compare to the consensus estimates of -$0.25 / -$0.44. While we rate
the shares Neutral, the RF stock may have more upside in a recovery than
most regional banks, as it is trading at 5.9x our forecast for normalized EPS
($1.00 to $1.15).
■
SunTrust (STI, Neutral): We are raising our 3Q09 / 2010 EPS estimates
from -$0.64 / -$1.62 to -$0.48 / -$1.20, while our forecasts still remain below
consensus (3Q09 / 2010 of -$0.58 / -$0.49). Our increase was driven by a
lower reserve build in 3Q09 (ratio of provisions to NCOs declines to 1.1 from
1.2), while we increased our reserve bleed (reduced reserve levels) in 2010.
We continue to rate the shares Neutral as the stock is trading at 8.7x our
forecast for normalized EPS ($2.60 to $2.80). At the conference, STI
commented that (1) NCOs should increase at a similar rate in 3Q as 2Q; (2)
NPL formation should decline; (3) 3Q reserve build should be lower than 2Q
levels, (4) doesn't want to issue common equity to repay TARP, and (5) NIM
should expand modestly in 3Q.
■
Continued on the next page…

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