美国医疗行业研究报告2009年9月

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Event
Sector update; Stock review.
Key Points
• Poor performance YTD from EU Pharma: The sector has
witnessed a rapid de-rating during 2009 as holdings were
initially used to fund redemptions as well as rights issues and
then lastly aggressively traded for cash to invest in high-beta
plays so that investors could leverage themselves to the
recovery seen in European indices over the past few months.
• Valuation looks attractive: The rapid switch in sentiment has
seen the sector move from a near all-time high PE-relative
rating versus the European MSCI index in October 2008 to an
all time low in June 2009 within the space of 8 months, with little
to differentiate the performances of most individual stocks as
rotational forces have ruled.
• Negative catalysts look benign: US Healthcare reform now
looks benign with low impact on either drug pricing or
vulnerability of biologic exclusivities.
• Positive catalysts mostly discounted: Strong recent financial
performances, H1N1 windfalls and drug approvals have helped
sector sentiment further, but seem already discounted into
investor thinking.
• Pipelines may offer some momentum: A raft of new product
approvals in H2 2009 could spark a rally in the sector. However
we believe that the more likely scenario is that a combination of
this and a stabilisation of the current sector discount range will
drive performance at least in line with the market.
• Technical bounce looks most likely short term: With the
sector's valuation (14% PE-relative discount) now sitting once
again near a historic market discount of 17% seen in June 2009
we see the technical level of discount required for a bounce at
around 20%
• Favourite names Roche, Novo Nordisk and Merck KGaA:
Roche continues to exhibit the best fundamentals within the
sector in terms of organic growth, patent exposure and pipeline.
Merck KGaA offers a good procyclical play on Liquid Crystal
demand as well as being a short-term recovery story after the
negative opinion on Erbitux in lung cancer. We like the
fundamentals of Novo Nordisk's business, but prefer to put
fresh money into the shares once the US regulatory decision on
Victoza (likely to be negative) has been made.
• We like GlaxoSmithKline and Novartis: GlaxoSmithKline and
Novartis shares (which we have upgraded to a Buy rating in a
separate publication today) offer good upside at present levels
as preferred rotation plays in local markets.
• Avoid AstraZeneca and Sanofi-aventis due to catalysts and
overhangs: With our stock selection process biased towards
organic growth, low reliance on R&D and an aversion to the
unpredictable margin compression that comes with heavy
exposure to patent expiries, we would avoid AstraZeneca and
Sanofi-aventis shares.

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关键词：行业研究报告 医疗行业 研究报告 美国医疗 行业研究 美国 研究报告 行业 医疗