加拿大帝国商业银行：美国石油天然气行业研究报告2009年9月

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Table Of Contents
Section 1 – Overview
A Good “Focus Play” Has All The Key Ingredients: Profitability, Resource
Upside, Repeatability, Production History & Manageable Risk .................. 8
Section 2 – Valuation Methodology
The Process Of “Derisking” Allows Us To Move Potential Upside Value Into
Risked Value We Would Pay For Today............................................... 10
Section 3 – Ranking & Summarizing Our Favorite Plays
Ranking – A Qualitative Exercise, But Helpful Nonetheless.................... 11
Summarizing – A Brief Overview & Description Of Who Is Chasing What 12
Section 4 – Focus Plays (With History Or Analogies)
A Summary Of Those Focus Plays That Have At Least Some Production
History, Or At Least Strong Offsetting Analogies.................................. 23
ARC Energy Trust 24
Baytex Energy Trust 26
Bonavista Energy Trust 28
Bonterra Oil & Gas 30
Daylight Resources Trust 32
Enerplus Resources Fund 34
NAL Oil & Gas Trust 36
Penn West Energy Trust 38
Peyto Energy Trust 40
Trilogy Energy Trust 42
Advantage Oil & Gas 44
Anderson Energy 46
Birchcliff Energy 48
Breaker Energy 50
Celtic Exploration 52
Compton Petroleum 54
Crew Energy 56
Galleon Energy 58
Highpine Oil & Gas 60
Insignia Energy 62
Orleans Energy 64
Storm Exploration 66
TriStar Oil & Gas 68
Vero Energy 70
Section 5 – Focus Plays (In Early Stages)
A Summary Of Those Focus Plays With Very Limited Or No Production
History........................................................................................... 73
Freehold Royalty Trust 74
Harvest Energy Trust 75
Paramount Energy Trust 76
Pengrowth Energy Trust 77
Progress Energy Resources 78
Provident Energy Trust 79
True Energy Trust 80
Vermilion Energy Trust 81
Zargon Energy Trust 82
Angle Energy 83
Iteration Energy 84
NuVista Energy 85
Paramount Resources 86
ProspEx Resources 87
West Energy 88
Section 6 – Summary Of Price Targets & Ratings
Rating Changes............................................................................... 89
Section 7 – Market Outlook
Gas Fundamentals Improving – Expect Near Term Equity Volatility Nearterm
With Weak Spot Prices, But Stocks Not Expensive From A Longerterm
Perspective ............................................................................. 90
Section 8 – Regional Maps ........................................................................ 93
NEBC/NW Alberta Montney Fairway 94
Bakken 95
Alberta Deep Basin 96
West Central AB 97
Kaybob Montney 98
Lower Shaunavon 99
Pembina 100
NEBC Horn River 101
Section 9 – Price Target Calculations & Key Risks
Price Target Calculations – Trusts/Dividend Corps. ............................... 102
Price Target Calculations – Juniors ..................................................... 102
Key Risks To Price Targets ................................................................ 102

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