德意志银行：美国医疗行业研究报告2009年9月

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Table of Contents
Investment summary ........................................................................ 4
Fine-tuning some price targets and HUM estimates ................................................................5
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................6
Downside risks to our neutral industry view.............................................................................7
Upside risks to our neutral industry view..................................................................................7
Some swing factors for 2H09 ........................................................... 9
COBRA penetration is on the rise .............................................................................................9
Mix changes and Swine Flu impact Medicaid MLRs in 2009..................................................12
Updated fiscal stimulus Medicaid sensitivity analysis.............................................................15
Health reform update ...................................................................... 23
Senator Baucus releases proposed health reform framework................................................23
White House/CBO both increase LT deficit forecasts.............................................................31
MCOs trading inversely with odds of public plan approval.....................................................32
M&A update..................................................................................... 34
Most recent deal: United to acquire Health Net Northeast.....................................................35
Details of the transaction ........................................................................................................36
Updated DB market forecasts ........................................................ 38
Industry trends overview................................................................ 41
Second quarter earnings recap; average EPS in line ...............................................................41
Enrollment: commercial still dropping; government rising......................................................42
Medical cost and premium pricing trends...............................................................................46
Milliman cost index report shows med cost moderation in 1Q09 ..........................................51
SG&A improves in 2Q09.........................................................................................................53
Sector valuation............................................................................... 59
DB financial projections .................................................................. 62
Company valuations and risks ....................................................... 73
Aetna......................................................................................................................................73
Cigna......................................................................................................................................73
Coventry Health Care ..............................................................................................................73
Health Net..............................................................................................................................74
HealthSpring ...........................................................................................................................74
Humana..................................................................................................................................74
UnitedHealth Group ................................................................................................................75
Wellpoint................................................................................................................................75
WellCare Health Plans.............................................................................................................75

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