德意志银行：欧洲证券市场投资策略报告2009年9月

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Part 1: Top down trends
Executive Summary by Jim Reid........................................................................................... 1
1) Introduction.................................................................................................................... 4
2) Overview of the recent globalisation trends................................................................ 4
3) Higher volatility of currencies, equity markets, and commodities............................. 6
EUR/USD exchange rate: Impact on relative sector performance....................... 9
Base metal prices (GSCI): Impact on relative sector performance .................... 10
Oil price: Impact on relative sector performance ................................................ 11
4) Globalisation risks in the focus ................................................................................... 12
5) Labour costs in focus.................................................................................................... 14
Part 2: Analysis of Bottom-up company data
6) Global exposure of European companies ................................................................... 16
Globalisation score and regional exposure of countries, sectors, and
companies ............................................................................................................... 17
Changes in regional sales between 2003 and 2008 ............................................. 20
Comparison between Europe and US by sector.................................................. 22
Globalisation scores and regional exposure of companies ................................ 23
Companies with strong exposure to the Americas and Asia/Pacific/RoW ....... 26
Global brands are important for global positioning............................................ 28
7) More details on declining production, exports, travelling and foreign invest. .......28
8) More details on emg. countries in Asia and Latam as beneficiaries of the crisis ...33
9) More details on stimulus packages............................................................................. 40
Appendix: Regional exposure of European companies..................................................... 45

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关键词：投资策略报告 德意志银行 证券市场 投资策略 市场投资 投资 证券 欧洲 德意志银行