德意志银行：日本贸易进出口行业研究报告2009年9月

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Table of Contents
Investment rating Overweight ......................................................... 4
Watch performance on improved revenue momentum and economic growth........................4
Commodities business the catalyst again.................................................................................5
Comparison of performance trends for commodities related share prices and indices............6
Excluding energy, overseas food business is of vital importance.............................................7
Stabilization of capital structure is a positive.............................................................................8
Limited asset impairment and operating receivables repayment risks ...................................10
Valuation .......................................................................................... 12
P/E averages around 10x since 2000 ......................................................................................12
P/B over 1x, but ROE high, thus does not seem overly expensive .........................................14
Marubeni our top pick.............................................................................................................15
Price Target and Risk ...................................................................... 16
Trading-company target prices................................................................................................16
Sector risks .............................................................................................................................16
Trading companies’ earnings structure......................................... 17
1. Main factor is high degree of correlation between businesses and economic factors.......17
2. The correlation of earnings with the Japanese market remains high..................................20
3. Towards a structure able to generate a sufficient EPS .......................................................20
Earnings trends for the companies .........................................................................................22
Macro assumptions ................................................................................................................23
Sensitivities............................................................................................................................23
Recovery in commodities businesses from FY3/12...................... 25
Outline of trading companies' commodities businesses ........................................................25
Thinking about the profitability of the commodities concession businesses..........................26
Crude oil and LNG prices to rise in FY3/12 ................................... 27
Medium-term upward trend for crude oil................................................................................27
Oil concessions: watch Mitsui and Itochu ..............................................................................28
LNG price also set to rise........................................................................................................29
LNG: Market overview ............................................................................................................30
Heading towards oversupply as demand dwindles and new sources of supply increase ......32
Supply-demand balance also likely to soften over medium term............................................33
LNG concessions: watch Mitsui and Mitsubishi .....................................................................36
Price fluctuation risks in steel materials ....................................... 38
Price forecasts for steel materials...........................................................................................38
Outline of the seaborne trade market for iron ore...................................................................38
FY09 iron ore prices are down approximately 30% ................................................................39
Medium-term weakening in iron ore supply-demand balance ................................................41
Outline of the seaborne trade market in coal ..........................................................................42
Coal prices plummeted far further than iron ore prices in FY09..............................................43
Coal supply-demand balance weakening over medium term .................................................44
Iron ore concessions: watch Mitsui and Itochu ......................................................................45
Coal concessions ....................................................................................................................46
Making and breaking alliances amongst the resource majors ................................................46
Other things to look for in the energy field................................... 48
Copper ore, ingots ..................................................................................................................48
Copper concessions: watch Mitsubishi, Sumitomo and Marubeni.........................................49
Rare metals............................................................................................................................49
Solar power generation...........................................................................................................50
China behind growth of grain business......................................... 52
Grain market in China..............................................................................................................52
For reference: general trading company industry history ........... 54
History of the current 7 company major trading company structure ......................................54
Companies
Itochu (8001.T) ........................................................................................................................ 56
Marubeni (8002.T) ................................................................................................................... 73
Mitsui & Co. (8031.T) .............................................................................................................. 92
Sumitomo Corp. (8053.T) ......................................................................................................110
Mitsubishi Corp. (8058.T)...................................................................................................... 127

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