摩根大通：美国证券市场投资策略报告2009年9月

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Table of Contents
The Dilemma of Where to Put “Fresh” Money ................................................. 4
Six Reasons “Fresh Money” Should Go into Cyclicals (over Defensives)..................................................... 7
Identifying Relative Opportunities in Cyclicals............................................................................................ 16
Trade Idea:27 Cyclical Stocks for the Next Leg of the Recovery................................................................. 19
Closing Trade — Top Energy Stocks ........................................................................................................... 22
Sector Comparative.......................................................................................... 25
Which Industries Score the Best? Based on Target Prices and Buzz-o-Meter.............................................. 26
S&P 500: Snapshot of Industry Market Capitalization................................................................................. 27
Price Performance – S&P 500 ...................................................................................................................... 28
Trailing 1-Month Relative Price Performance – Sectors .............................................................................. 29
Monthly Sales Revision – S&P 500.............................................................................................................. 30
Monthly Sales Revision – Sectors ................................................................................................................ 31
Relative Sales Momentum – S&P 500.......................................................................................................... 32
Relative Sales Growth (vs. S&P 500) – Sectors (best if tail is rising) .......................................................... 33
Monthly Earnings Revision – S&P 500........................................................................................................ 34
Monthly Earnings Revision – Sectors........................................................................................................... 35
Relative Earnings Momentum – S&P 500.................................................................................................... 36
Relative Earnings Momentum – Sectors (best if tail is rising)...................................................................... 37
JULI Spreads – All Industries...................................................................................................................... 38
JULI Spreads (Relative to All Industries’ Averages) – Sectors (best is high and narrowing) ...................... 39
First Call Mean Rating – S&P 500 ............................................................................................................... 40
First Call Mean Rating (Relative to S&P 500) – Sectors (best is low and rising) ........................................ 41
Short Interest – S&P 500 .............................................................................................................................. 42
Short Interest (Relative to S&P 500) – Sectors (best is high and falling)..................................................... 43
ETF (SPDR) Fund Flows............................................................................................................................. 44
ETF (SPDR) Fund Flows – Sectors .............................................................................................................. 45
Price/10-Yr EPS – S&P 500 ......................................................................................................................... 46
Price/10-Yr EPS (Relative to S&P 500) – Sectors (best if low and rising)................................................... 47

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