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Recovery Story Intact Despite Weak Agriculture Outlook
I. Where Are We Now?
Aggregate Real Economic Variables - IP Growth Turns Around, Exports Still to Improve………………………………………………………………..………………………4
Consumption Showing Signs of Improvement………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………………………5
Investment Cycle Still Weak…………………………………………….………………………………………………………………..………………………7
Operating Leverage Will Still Be a Burden in F2010………………….…………………………………….…..…………………………….………….……..……………………8
II. Drought, Agriculture, and GDP Growth Outlook
How Has the Rainfall Been So Far?.......…… …………....……………..………….…………………………………………...….…………………..........................................10
What Is at Stake? Agriculture Output….…………....……...…………………………………………...……….................................................………..….….……………......11
What Is at Stake?...Inflation Outlook..............................………...………………...………………………………………………………….....………..…..………………........12
What Is at Stake?...Rural Private Consumption .……………………………………………………………………………….…………….....………..…..……………….........13
Lowering Agriculture Growth Forecasts on Poor Monsoons…………………………………………………….…………………………………………………….…….14
Non-Agriculture Growth Will See Only Limited Impact………….…..…….……….….………………………………………………………......………………….……………..15
III. Pace of Acceleration to Gather Momentum Despite Poor Agriculture
Lagged Impact of Fiscal Policy…………………………………….…..…….……….….………………………………………………………......………………….……………..18
and Monetary Policy…………………………………….………….…..…….……….….………………………………………………………......………………….……………..19
Liquidity is Abundant…………………………………….………….…..…….……….….………………………………………………………......………………….……………..20
Rate Hikes Coming But Far From Being Restrictive...………….…..…….……….….………………………………………………………......………………….……………..21
Increased Access To Global Capital Markets..……….………….…..…….……….….………………………………………………………......………………….……………..22
External Demand To Recover Significantly.....……….………….…..…….……….….………………………………………………………......………………….……………..23
Improved Business Confidence In View Of Increased Political Stability..……….….………………………………………………………......………………….……………..24
IV. 2011 Growth Outlook
First Cut For 2011 – Sustaining 7% Plus Growth Rates..…..…….……….….………………………………………………………......………………….…………………….26
V. Acceleration to 8.5-9% GDP Growth Will Still Be a Challenge
Three Reasons Why?......................................................…..…….……….….………………………………………………………......………………….…………………….28
VII. Upside and Downside Risks to Our Estimates
Key Risk Factors: Global Growth, Structural Reforms and Agriculture Growth Outlook….………………………………………………......………………….……………..30
Macro Theme in Focus
Theme I: Infrastructure Spending to Remain Supportive......……………………...….…………………………............................................………….…………...…………32
Theme II: 10-Year Yields Likely To Remain Range Bound...……………………...….…………………………............................................………….…………...…………35
Theme III: Exchange Rate: Appreciation Bias To Continue..……………………...….…………………………............................................………….…………...…………37
Theme IV: Balance of Payments – Rise in Capital Inflows to Drive Surplus....…...…………..............................................................………….…………...……...……...38
Theme V: Long-term Growth Outlook – An Interplay of Three Macro Factors…..….……………………...............................................………….…………...………45
Facts and Figures………………………………………………..……………………..………………………………………….....………………..…....49
Macroeconomic Forecasts………………..……..……..……..……………….……………..……...………….…………..…………………………….……...68

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