摩根大通：亚太汽车行业研究报告2009年9月

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Key items this month
What is changing? We analyze: (1) China’s move away from a 25%
import tariff on CKD and SKD sets towards a standard 10% tariff on
import of all auto components and, the possible negative impact of
increase in retail fuel prices on auto sales; (2) our earnings estimate and PT
increase for Korea’s HMC on improving recurring profit profile and better
earnings visibility from overseas investments and leaner cost structure for
the to-be-launched new models in 3Q09-2010; (3) the potential negative
impact on the Indian auto exports due to the expected end of European
scrappage incentive schemes; (4) the potential increase in 4Q09 Taiwan
auto sales due to front-loading by buyers, given the uncertainty on the
extension of vehicle commodity tax through the next year; (5) the impact
of luxury tax increase on vehicles with a capacity >3000cc in Indonesia.
Information: We discuss: (1) the mixed impact on China’s Geely
Automobile upon the issue of CBs to the Goldman Sachs affiliate and, the
planned capacity expansion by DongFeng Honda to double its production
capacity to 480,000 units; (2) a string of new model launches in Korea,
which will intensify domestic competition in 4Q09, in our view; (3) the
launch of Ford’s Figo in India targeting market share expansion in the
mass-market segment and, the increase in vehicle sales forecast by the
industry body SIAM to 8-9% for 2009, compared to 3-5% earlier; (4) the
weak August-September auto sales in Taiwan due to lunar ghost month.
Non-consensus calls: (1) We revised our Taiwan auto sales growth
forecasts for 2009/10 to 14% (260,000 units) and 10% (290,000 units),
from -5% and +10%, respectively. Our 2009 forecast is higher than the
consensus forecast of 230,000-250,000 units. We raised our 2009 earnings
forecasts for CMC (OW) to NT$454 million and for Yulon (OW) to
NT$1,007 million, as we expect both companies to benefit from better
sales volume and higher margin due to high operating leverage. In the past,
consensus’ upward earnings estimates have been one of the key drivers for
Taiwan auto stocks. We expect consensus earnings forecasts for Taiwan’s
auto sector to catch up with our revised forecasts in the coming months,
which should help boost the sector’s performance.

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关键词：汽车行业研究报告 行业研究报告 研究报告 摩根大通 行业研究 研究报告 行业 汽车 亚太 摩根大通

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