凯基证券：台湾证券市场2009年第4季度投资策略报告

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Taiwan market strategy
Rising near-term risks, but uptrend intact 1
Our top picks
Asia Cement (1102.TW/1102 TT): Riding on demand & price recovery 12
Taiwan Fertilizer (1722.TW/1722 TT): Cross-strait rapprochement to boost asset value 15
China Steel (2002.TW/2002 TT): Growing on public works projects 18
Ambassador Hotel (2704.TW/2704 TT): Fundamentals showing improvements 21
Fubon FHC (2881.TW/2881 TT): First-mover advantage in China expansion 24
Far Eastern Dept Stores (2903.TW/2903 TT): Entering peak season 27
Chi Mei Optoelectronics (3009.TW/3009 TT): Taking the lead in China 30
Wistron (3231.TW/3231 TT): NB, LCD TV & handheld to fuel 2H09-10 growth 33
Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW/8046 TT): Flip chip demand rising on new Intel platform 36
Advanced International (8938.TW/8938 TT): Moving into carbon fiber casing business 39
Sectors
Financial sector: Cross-strait financial MOU to be signed soon 45
Real estate sector: Value emerges on cross-strait rapprochement 47
Cement sector: Readying for peak season 49
Petrochemicals sector: Aromatics producers more defensive 51
Steel sector: Consolidating upward 53
Transportation sector: Recovery hinges on oversupply easing 55
Tourism sector: Approaching peak season 57
Retail sector: Weak 3Q09, better 4Q09 59
Notebook sector: Upturn to continue 61
PCB sector: Earnings up on new products & applications 63
Networking sector: Seasonal growth may not be as strong as before 65
Solar energy sector: In the eye of a perfect storm 67
TFT-LCD sector: Now a good time to buy panel stocks 69
LED sector: Time to engage after three-month correction 71
IC design sector: Moderate seasonal decline ahead 73
Foundry sector: Brief intermission; rebound to come in 2010 75
DRAM sector: Prices nearing end of uptrend 77
Packaging & testing sector: Moderate pullback in 4Q09 79
Stock market
Cash calls and cash supply 81
Portfolio weightings 82
Taiwan economy
Export-led recovery on global inventory restocking 84
Appendices
Summary of US economic indicators 89
Summary of Taiwan economic indicators 90
Market valuation 91
Sector performance 93
Stock performance 95
Stock screens – Value stocks 96
Stock screen – Growth stocks 97
Stock screens – Short stocks 98
Changes to earnings estimates 99
Changes to investment ratings 101
KGI universe valuation table 102

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关键词：投资策略报告 证券市场 投资策略 策略报告 Fundamentals 投资 证券 台湾