汇丰银行：土耳其汽车行业研究报告2009年9月

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Tofas preferred play but favour
DOAS in scrap support scenario
The prevailing tax incentives for Turkish autos will expire
on 30 September and the government will soon make a
decision how to proceed. There is the possibility for a “no
action” outcome but, based on recent media reports, one
option that the state considers is replacing tax cuts with a
scrappage scheme. The implementation may differ from the
previous practice in Turkey (2003-04), making assessments
difficult. Nevertheless, we find it useful to provide as a
reference two scenarios (details we provide later in the note)
under which we conclude the potential positive impact on
DOAS would be higher than on Ford Otosan and Tofas.
Given the uncertainty, our sectoral outlook and stock
valuations are still based on a “no new incentive” scenario
post Q3. But we revisit our forecasts and valuations with a
more optimistic view now for a moderate volume recovery
from Q4 as per declining bank loan rates, signalling better
consumer financing outlook. We also factor in the longerterm
impact of new investment plans as these have started to
shape up, particularly on Ford Otosan (new Transit model)
and Tofas (replacement for Palio/Albea) fronts. Under our
base-case scenario, we reiterate OW(V) on Tofas (new TP
TL5.5 vs TL4.0), and N(V) on Ford Otosan (new TP TL10.5
vs TL8.2). We upgrade DOAS to N(V) (new TP TL6.0 vs
TL3.0). We prefer DOAS in a scrap program scenario as we
project its full domestic exposure would help create the
greatest potential return.

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