高盛：中国证券市场投资策略报告2009年9月(免费)

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October 2009: Concerns overshadow improving fundamentals
Macro and corporate fundamentals appear on a firm recovery
path, but market concerns over potential liquidity drain from
upcoming equity issuances and exit strategies continue to
weigh on investor sentiment. We stay fundamentally positive
on A shares and investors may consider building up positions
gradually should the market weakness persist.
Market view: Concerns dominate; consider buying on weakness
Despite the encouraging data points from both macro and corporate levels, A
shares failed to hold on to the 16.7% rebound from the beginning of the month
and ceded 10% from the month-highs mainly due to investor concerns over the
liquidity demand from upcoming equity issuance activities and reversal of the
ultra-accommodative monetary policies by the US and China. On liquidity, we
note that the historical relationship between the amount of equity being raised
and market returns has been weak and think that liquidity remains very
accommodative in the domestic system. On exit strategy, we believe the
policy/growth dynamics are still favorable and it is premature to expect a
directional change in monetary policy as real rates are still high and private
investment, especially in real estate, has just begun to pick up. We reiterate our
positive stance on the A-share market and our end-2010E index target of 4,300
for CSI300 (at 2973 as of Sept 28). Potential further market weakness may
present attractive buying opportunities, in our view.
Strategies: Pro-cyclical bias; thematic alpha; focus on A-H trades
We think the risk/reward favors alpha than market beta at this juncture: (1)
Our thematic bias continues to tilt towards domestic demand and we would
overweight banks and insurers due to their pro-cyclical nature, improving
fundamentals and strong valuation buffers. (2) De-regulation appears to be a
long-lasting investment theme as the government has recently stepped up
its effort to stimulate private sector investment. (3) Besides insurers, A-share
names that appear interesting from an A-H angle include Angang (A) (Buy,
on CL), Anhui Conch (A) (Neutral), CRCC (A) (Buy), and ICBC (A) (Buy).

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关键词：投资策略报告 中国证券市场 证券市场 中国证券 投资策略 投资 高盛 中国证券

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