汇丰银行：欧洲保险行业研究报告2009年9月

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Cost cutting will be a key theme for the
insurance sector
􀀗 Our updated analysis of 49 European
insurers administrative expense bases
identifies up to EUR30bn of cost-cutting
potential worth EUR87bn
􀀗 13 of the 27 insurers we cover have bull
case cost-cutting potential worth >20%
of current share price if executed
We have updated our original ‘Cost-cutting calculator’
report for 2008 data. Our analysis highlights that the least
efficient insurers (Baloise, AMB) are operating with admin
expense ratios some 7x higher than the most efficient (CNP,
Trygvesta). We believe that insurers should operate with
similar admin expense ratios and big differences in lieu of
company-specific explanations imply cost-cutting potential.
CNP retains the crown as the most efficient life insurer for
an impressive fifth consecutive year with Trygvesta,
becoming the most efficient mainstream non-life insurer.
Baloise picks up the wooden spoon ranking as the least
efficient life insurer and second least efficient non-life
insurer. Special mention goes to Prudential and Munich Re
that have materially improved their life and primary non-life
expense ratios respectively over the past year.
We expect further cost-cutting announcements over the next
12 months with communicated restructuring benefits of
EUR6bn equating to just 23% of the bull case cost-cutting
potential we have identified across our coverage universe.
Doubtless some of the potential will be executed by stealth
in light of political sensitivities.
The top five insurers we cover (see Exhibit 30 for ratings and
price targets) with the biggest cost-cutting value creation
potential, measured as a percentage of share price are: Fondiaria
(109%), AEGON (85%), Baloise (55%), Swiss Life (43%) and
Zurich Financial Services (40%) under our bull-case scenario.
Once again Europe’s largest insurers are still failing to extract
meaningful economies of scale benefit; we see material costcutting
potential at mega-caps AXA and Allianz.

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