摩根大通：南非保险行业研究报告2009年10月

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Table of Contents
Executive Summary .................................................................2
Growth Prospects.....................................................................5
The Underwriting Profit Cycle .................................................8
Historical levels and trends..........................................................................................8
Factors impacting the underwriting cycle ....................................................................9
We expect the underwriting cycle to turn positive in 2010........................................11
Santam and M&F underwriting ratios compared.......................................................12
Strategy and goals .................................................................16
Santam strategy and goals..........................................................................................16
Mutual & Federal strategy and goals .........................................................................17
Ownership...............................................................................18
Corporate Governance and Management ............................19
Safety in numbers ..................................................................21
What can MAF do to effect a turnaround? ...........................23
Valuation .................................................................................24
Valuation Methodology .............................................................................................24
Macro economic parameters ......................................................................................24
Sustainable return on capital and dividend payout ratios...........................................27
Santam Free Cash Flow and Return on Capital Projections ......................................27
M&F Free Cash Flow and Return on Capital Projections..........................................28
Historical and Future ROEs compared ......................................................................29
Santam ....................................................................................30
Valuation Summary ...................................................................................................30
Earnings outlook ........................................................................................................31
Mutual & Federal.....................................................................32
Valuation Summary ...................................................................................................32
Earnings outlook ........................................................................................................34
Deterministic Valuation Sensitivity Testing .........................35
Monte Carlo Simulations .......................................................35
The objective of our stochastic modeling exercise ....................................................35
Equity market model inputs .......................................................................................36
Underwriting profit model inputs ..............................................................................38
The rest of our model inputs and workings................................................................39
The results of our modeling .......................................................................................40
Modeling weaknesses ................................................................................................40
Valuation Methodology and Risks ........................................43

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