摩根大通：美国证券市场投资策略报告2009年10月

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Table of Contents
US Equity Strategy Recent Publications......................................................................................................... 2
Strong 3Q09 EPS with Top- and Bottom-Line Beats… ................................... 5
…the Real Story – 28% of Companies Realize Record 3Q Profits ................. 9
…Upside to 2010 EPS Estimate of $75 and Could Soon Surpass Prior Peak EPS....................................... 12
Recovering to Prior Peak EPS by Late 2010/Early 2011.............................................................................. 13
Market Strategy: Rising Tobin’s Q Still Favors “Bad Balance Sheets” ....... 15
We Believe “Bad Balance Sheet” Stocks Will Continue to Outperform ...................................................... 16
Trade Idea: 25 Stocks to Leverage Rising Asset Values .............................. 20
Finding Low Tobin’s Q Stocks with Higher Debt to Leverage Rise in Asset Prices.................................... 20
Update on Top Energy Stocks Trade Idea .................................................................................................... 25
Closing Trade – 26 Cyclical Stocks for the Next Leg of the Recovery ........................................................ 26
Sector Comparative.......................................................................................... 29
Which Industries Score the Best? Based on Target Prices and Buzz-o-Meter.............................................. 30
S&P 500: Snapshot of Industry Market Capitalization................................................................................. 31
Price Performance – S&P 500 ...................................................................................................................... 32
Trailing 1-Month Relative Price Performance – Sectors .............................................................................. 33
Monthly Sales Revision – S&P 500.............................................................................................................. 34
Monthly Sales Revision – Sectors ................................................................................................................ 35
Relative Sales Momentum – S&P 500.......................................................................................................... 36
Relative Sales Growth (vs. S&P 500) – Sectors (best if tail is rising) .......................................................... 37
Monthly Earnings Revision – S&P 500........................................................................................................ 38
Monthly Earnings Revision – Sectors........................................................................................................... 39
Relative Earnings Momentum – S&P 500.................................................................................................... 40
Relative Earnings Momentum – Sectors (best if tail is rising)...................................................................... 41
JULI Spreads – All Industries...................................................................................................................... 42
JULI Spreads (Relative to All Industries’ Averages) – Sectors (best is high and narrowing) ...................... 43
First Call Mean Rating – S&P 500 ............................................................................................................... 44
First Call Mean Rating (Relative to S&P 500) – Sectors (best is low and rising) ........................................ 45
Short Interest – S&P 500 .............................................................................................................................. 46
Short Interest (Relative to S&P 500) – Sectors (best is high and falling)..................................................... 47
ETF (SPDR) Fund Flows............................................................................................................................. 48
ETF (SPDR) Fund Flows – Sectors .............................................................................................................. 49
Price/10-Yr EPS – S&P 500 ......................................................................................................................... 50
Price/10-Yr EPS (Relative to S&P 500) – Sectors (best if low and rising)................................................... 51
Sector Analysis: Industries and Stocks ......................................................... 52
Energy.......................................................................................................................................................... 53
Materials ...................................................................................................................................................... 54
Industrials .................................................................................................................................................... 55
Technology .................................................................................................................................................. 56
Staples.......................................................................................................................................................... 57
Health Care .................................................................................................................................................. 58
Telecom ....................................................................................................................................................... 59
Utilities ........................................................................................................................................................ 60
Discretionary................................................................................................................................................ 61
Financials..................................................................................................................................................... 63
Buzz-o-Meter Methodology......................................................................................................................... 64
Composite Score Methodology.................................................................................................................... 65

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