供应中断风险的买方感知研究:行为的观点和经验的评估
Buyer perceptions of supply disruption risk: A behavioral view and empirical assessment
Journal of Operations Management, Volume 28, Issue 1, January 2010, Pages 34-46
Scott C. Ellis, Raymond M. Henry, Jeff Shockley
Abstract
As supply chains become more complex, firms face increasing risks of supply disruptions. The process through which buyers make decisions in the face of these risks, however, has not been explored. Despite research highlighting the importance of behavioral approaches to risk, there is limited research that applies these views of risk in the supply chain literature. This paper addresses this gap by drawing on behavioral risk theory to investigate the causal relationships amongst situation, representations of risk, and decision-making within the purchasing domain. We operationalize and explore the relationship between three representations of supply disruption risk: magnitude of supply disruption, probability of supply disruption, and overall supply disruption risk. Additionally, we draw on exchange theories to identify product and market factors that impact buyers’ perceptions of the probability and magnitude of supply disruption. Finally, we look at how representations of risk affect the decision to seek alternative sources of supply. We test our model using data collected from 223 purchasing managers and buyers of direct materials. Our results show that both the probability and the magnitude of supply disruption are important to buyers’ overall perceptions of supply disruption risk. We also find that product and market situational factors impact perceptions of risk, but they are best understood through their impact on perceptions of probability and magnitude. Finally, we find that decisions are based on assessments of overall risk. These findings provide insight into the decision-making process and show that all three representations of risk are necessary for fully understanding risky decision-making with respect to supply disruptions.
摘要:随着供应链变得越来越复杂公司将面临增长的供应中断风险。然而,购买者面临风险时做决定的程序还没有被探索到。虽然研究加强了行为方法对风险的重要性但是在研究供应链的文献中只是有限的研究应用了这些观点。这篇文章通过利用行为风险理论调查环境、风险陈述和作出决定三者之间在采购领域的因果关系填补了这个空缺。我们操作和探究了供应中断的程度、供应中断的可能性和整体供应中断风险这三种供应中断之间的关系。另外我们又利用交换理论验证了产品和市场因素对购买者的供应中断的程度和可能性的观念的影响。最后我们评判了风险陈述是如何影响寻找替代供应来源的决定的。我们用223个采购经理和资料直接购买者的数据来验证我们的模型。结果显示风险中断的可能性和程度对购买者的供应中断风险的整体观念都很重要。我们还发现了产品和市场环境因素对风险观念的影响,通过他们对可能性和程度的观念影响他们能够更容易被理解。最后我们发现决定是基于整体风险的评估。这些研究结果提供决策过程视角,并显示三种风险在谈到风险中断时对于充分了解风险决策是必要的。
Article Outline
1. Introduction
2. Literature review
3. Theoretical model of supply disruption risk
3.1. Overall supply disruption risk
3.2. Antecedents of supply disruption risk
3.2.1. Technological uncertainty
3.2.2. Market thinness
3.2.3. Item customization
3.2.4. Item importance
3.2.5. Search for alternative source of supply
3.2.6. Exogenous correlations
4. Methodology
4.1. Research instrument development
4.2. Sample frame and data collection
4.3. Survey instructions
4.4. Overview of statistical methods
5. Analysis and findings
5.1. Respondent profile and survey biases
5.2. Results of the confirmatory factor analysis
5.3. Results of the structural model analysis
6. Discussion and conclusions
References
英文原文下载:Buyer perceptions.rar