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[转帖]2030年全球经济预言 [推广有奖]

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weiliang 发表于 2007-1-7 10:25:00 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群

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2030年全球经济预言

作者:英国《金融时报》首席经济评论员马丁•沃尔夫(Martin Wolf)

2006年12月22日 星期五

2030年的时候全球经济会是个什么样子?这一点没人知道。但我们可以思考,目前的趋势将把我们带向何方。同样,我们可以对一些风险和机遇进行评估。世界银行(World Bank)最新的《全球经济展望》(Global Economic Prospects)就起到了这种作用*。该报告不仅有助于我们组织思路,还应该能让我们振作起来,鞭策我们做得更好。

过去的25年,随着技术的进步,以及社会主义“沙堡”在经济自由化浪潮的冲击下坍塌,全球经济一体化呈现出前所未有的规模。世行报告也指出:“自1980年以来,全球收入已增长一倍,自1990年来,已有4.5亿人口摆脱极度贫困,目前发展中国家的人均寿命为65岁。”

全球化进程也在迅速前行:1970年至2004年之间,出口在全球经济产出中所占的份额已增长一倍,达到25%以上;新技术在全球范围内迅速传播;2004年,发展中国家的私人融资总额达到了近1万亿美元。这些趋势的持续存在引人瞩目。此外,近来全球经济令人鼓舞的特点之一,是发展中国家人均收入的增长提速(参见图表),南亚增长率以及东亚地区在全球经济中的比重均有所上升。


那么,2030年的时候世界会是个什么样子呢?报告提出一种中方案情形,假设政策环境没有发生重大变化。那么,这种情形可能被视为“一切照常”。

首先,全球经济的实际规模将增长一倍,而发展中国家的总产出将增长两倍,其在全球经济产出中所占份额从23%提高至33%(以不变市场价格计算)。东亚、南亚和中东欧的人均平均收入将集中在那些高收入国家(以购买力平价计算)。例如,以购买力平价计算,中国的人均收入将从相当于高收入国家平均水平的19%,上升至42%。不过,非洲亚撒哈拉地区仍将远远落在后面。

其次,全球化仍然是一股驱动力量:出口在全球经济产出中所占的份额将升至34%;金融一体化趋势将继续,不过发展中国家仍将严重依赖国内储蓄;而技术将继续在全球范围内传播。

第三,在贫困和收入分配方面将发生重大变化。按购买力平价计算,消费低于每天1美元的贫困人口,将从目前的11亿减少到5.5亿,而消费低于每天两美元的贫困人口将从目前的27亿,减少到19亿以下。同时,贫困人口中非洲国家所占的比重将明显上升:到2030年,东亚和南亚在全球最贫穷的10%人口中将占30%的份额,低于2000年的60%,而非洲亚撒哈拉地区在最贫穷的10%人口中所占的份额,将从30%升至55%(参见图表)。此外,全球中产阶级(收入介于目前巴西与意大利平均收入之间的人)中有12亿人将来自发展中国家,高于2000年的4亿(参见图表)。

那么,哪些方面可能出现问题?明显的威胁来自保护主义对抗情绪、环境制约、流行性疾病或战争。

保护主义的源头之一,是全球化给非熟练劳动力相对工资带来的下行压力。但目前还存在一些担忧:中国和印度将逐渐主导全球高科技产品和服务的出口。

非熟练劳动力似乎在任何地方的表现都很糟糕,这一事实表明,目前作用最大的力量是技术而非贸易。同样,中国和印度的工资水平较低,是因为两国的平均生产力偏低。正如报告指出,其中原因之一是两国的制度仍不完善:出于该原因或其它原因,这个世界的“扁平”程度远远不如《纽约时报》(New York Times)专栏作家托马斯•弗里德曼(Thomas Friedman)所主张的那样。此外,这些大国的本土市场将创造新的出口机会。这些国家的工资水平也在不断提高:1989年至2004年间,中国实际工资的增幅为110%。

未来25年,环境制约或疾病似乎都不可能使全球经济停顿,不过它们可能带来局部性或暂时的困难。战争,包括动用核武器或生物武器的非对称性战争,似乎是一个更大的威胁,1914年至1945年那段灾难性时期就是例证。不过,战争也是一种难以量化的威胁。

不过,审视哪些方面可能发展良好也颇为重要。过去25年来,全球经济已展现出一种安然渡过金融危机、恐怖主义、战争和地缘政治剧变的非凡能力。此外,虽然进程缓慢且通常难以察觉,但发展中国家的政策一直在改善,因为这些国家已经认识到,需要采取什么措施,才能使融入全球市场经济有利于自己。

记得上世纪80年代初,几乎没人能够想象到,中国和印度经济会出现如此巨大的增长。未来25年,或许非洲亚撒哈拉地区、中东和拉美将加入这一行列。亚洲大国的进展,将为这些国家带来许多新的机遇。

世行报告提出的中方案是,未来25年,发展中国家人均实际收入的年增长率将达到3.1%。但世行也探讨了一种高方案,即发展中国家人均收入的年增长率将达到4.6%。到2030年,这将为发展中国家额外带来10万亿美元的年收入——将比中方案所预期的收入高出44%。进入21世纪以来,全球各国经济增长表现普遍好转,表明上述情形有可能出现。

要实现这种出色表现,需要采取什么措施呢?直接的答案是:刺激目前落后地区的经济加速增长。我们的努力必须集中于以下方面:帮助这些国家获得其所需的安全、人力和其它资源、制度和政策。亚洲正在采取上述措施。其它发展中国家也必须效仿。

一个稳定与合作的全球经济和政治环境,也至少同样重要。世界经济已经表明,它能够经受住诸多的动荡。它甚至挺过20世纪的数次灾难:两次世界大战、一次冷战、大革命和社会主义专政。但我们必须竭尽全力,避免历史重演,特别是在目前的核时代。人类能够理智地处理自己的事务吗?是的。那么他们会这样做吗?这是一个我们需要提出的重要问题。

*《全球经济展望:应对下一波全球化浪潮》(Global Economic Prospects: Managing the Next Wave of Globalization),www.worldbank.org

译者/刘彦

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-1-7 10:35:17编辑过]

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关键词:全球经济 World Bank prospects WorldBank Economic 经济 预言 全球

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weiliang 发表于 2007-1-7 10:31:00 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群

Enclosed is the original article in English:

A GLIMPSE OF A PROSPEROUS 2030 AND WHAT CAN FOSTER IT

Martin Wolf Friday, December 22, 2006

What might the world economy look like in 2030? Nobody knows. But we can consider where present trends are taking us. We can assess, too, some of the dangers and opportunities. That is what the World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report does*. This report does more than help organise our thinking. It should also cheer us up and spur us to do better.

The past quarter of a century has been a time of unprecedented integration of the world economy, as technology advanced and the socialist sandcastles crumbled under the tide of economic liberalisation. As the report also notes: “Global income has doubled since 1980, 450m have been lifted out of extreme poverty since 1990 and life expectancy in developing countries is now 65 on average.”

Globalisation has also proceeded apace: between 1970 and 2004, exports as a proportion of world output doubled to more than 25 per cent; new technologies have diffused rapidly across the globe; and total private financing of developing countries reached nearly $1,000bn in 2004. The persistence of these trends is striking. Moreover, among the encouraging recent features is the acceleration in the growth of incomes per head in the developing world (see chart), as south Asian growth rates and east Asian weights in the total both rose.

So what might the world look like in 2030? The report takes a base case with no significant changes in the policy environment. This might then be regarded as “business as usual”.

First, the size of the global economy would double, in real terms, while the developing countries' aggregate output would triple, raising their share in the total from 23 to 33 per cent (at constant market prices). Average incomes per head in east Asia, south Asia and central and eastern Europe would converge on those in high-income countries (at purchasing power parity). China's incomes per head, at PPP, for example, would go from 19 to 42 per cent of the average level in high-income countries. But sub-Saharan Africa would fall still further behind.

Second, globalisation would remain a driving force: exports as a proportion of world output would rise to 34 per cent; financial integration would continue, though developing countries would still remain overwhelmingly dependent on their own savings; and technology would continue to diffuse across the globe.

Third, significant changes would occur in poverty and income distribution. The number of people living on less than a dollar a day, at PPP, would fall to 550m from 1.1bn today, while those on less than $2 would fall below 1.9bn, from 2.7bn. Poverty would also become far more African: by 2030, east and south Asia's share in the poorest tenth of the global population would be 30 per cent, down from 60 per cent in 2000, while sub-Saharan Africa's would go from 30 per cent to 55 per cent (see chart). In addition, a global middle class – people whose incomes are between today's average Brazilian and Italian incomes – of 1.2bn would emerge in the developing world, up from 400m in 2000 (see chart).

So what might go wrong? The obvious threats are a protectionist backlash, environmental limits, pandemic diseases or war.

One source of protectionism is the downward pressure on the relative rewards of unskilled labour. But there are also fears that China and India will come to dominate world exports of high-technology goods and services.

The fact that unskilled labour seems to be doing badly almost everywhere suggests that technology, not trade, is the most powerful force now at work. Again, China and India have low wages because they have low average productivity. One of the reasons, as the report notes, is that they still have poor institutions: for this and other reasons, the world is much less “flat” than Thomas Friedman of TheNew York Times has argued. Moreover, these giants will create new opportunities for exports to their markets. Their wages are also rising: Chinese real wages grew by 110 per cent between 1989 and 2004.

Neither environmental limits nor disease seems likely to halt the global economy over the next quarter of a century, though they may create local or temporary difficulties. War, including asymmetric warfare with nuclear or biological weaponry, seems a bigger threat, as the catastrophic 1914-45 period showed. But war is also a difficult threat to quantify.

Yet it is also important to look at what could go right. The global economy has shown an extraordinary ability to survive financial crises, terrorism, war and geopolitical upheavals over the past quarter of a century. Moreover, slowly and often invisibly, policies have been improving in the developing world, as countries have learnt what is needed to make integration into a global market economy work for them.

Remember that in the early 1980s few imagined that China and India would show the growth we have since seen. Maybe sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and Latin America will join the bandwagon over the next quarter century. The very progress of the Asian giants will open up many new opportunities for these countries.

The report's baseline case is for growth of real incomes per head in the developing world at 3.1 per cent a year over the next quarter of a century. But it also examines a higher case, in which the growth in incomes per head runs at 4.6 per cent a year in these countries. This would generate an additional $10,000bn in annual income for developing countries by 2030 – an increase of 44 per cent over what it would be in the baseline case. The broadly shared improvement in growth performance during the early years of this century suggest that this is conceivable.

What needs to be done to achieve such superior performance? The immediate answer is: generate higher economic growth in currently lagging regions. Efforts must be concentrated on helping these countries acquire the security, human and other resources, institutions and policies they need. Asia is showing the way. The rest of the developing world must follow.

At least as important is a stable and co-operative global economic and political environment. The world economy has shown it can survive much turmoil. It even survived the catastrophes of the 20th century: two world wars, a cold war, huge revolutions and communist tyranny. But we must do everything we can to avoid a repetition, particularly in today's nuclear age. Is humanity capable of managing its affairs sensibly? Yes. Will it do so? That is the big question we need to ask.

*Global Economic Prospects: Managing the Next Wave of Globalization,www.worldbank.org


[此贴子已经被作者于2007-1-7 10:36:48编辑过]

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