水清木华—中国不锈钢行业研究报告2007

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Table of Contents:
1 Analysis on Features of Stainless Steel Industry..............................................................................5
1.1 Strong Periodicity of Stainless Steel Industry ..............................................................................5
1.1.1 The Complete Subjection of Stainless Steel Periodicity to Iron & Steel Industry ..............5
1.1.2 Average Growth Rate for Stainless Steel Consumption Was 1.5 Times than That of
Straight Carbon Steel in 1994-2007 ..........................................................................................6
1.2 Stainless Steel Demand Affected by Economic Booming............................................................8
1.2.1 Great Elastic Coefficient of Stainless Steel Demand to Economic Boom .........................8
1.2.2 Small Elastic Coefficient of Stainless Steel Demand to Stainless Steel Price...................9
1.3 Stainless Steel Consumption Grows Faster than Other General Metal Materials......................12
2 Global Consumption of Stainless Steel ...........................................................................................14
2.1 Fast Growth of Global Economy being the Foundation for Stainless Steel Demand.................14
2.2 Huge Potential of Stainless Steel Consumption in Newly Emerging Countries .........................15
2.2.1 Rapid Growth for Stainless Steel Consumption in Newly Emerging Countries...............15
2.2.2 Huge Potential of Stainless Steel Consumption in Newly Emerging Countries ..............16
2.3 Still Considerable Consumption of Stainless Steel in Developed Countries ..............................18
2.4 Newly Added Supply of Stainless Steel in Recent Five Years ...................................................18
2.5 Development Trend of Global Stainless Steel Consumption .....................................................20
2.5.1 Production and Consumption of Nickel-saving Stainless Steel Expands Rapidly...........20
2.5.2 Consumption Structure of Stainless Steel Will Remain Steady.......................................21
2.5.3 Deepening and Prevalence of Stainless Steel Applications............................................22
3 Development Prospect of China Stainless Steel Industry..............................................................23
3.1 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand in China ...........................................................................23
3.1.1 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand in China Grows Fast .............................................23
3.1.2 Quality of Stainless Steel Product Has Reached International Advanced Level .............24
3.1.3 Promotion of Product Quality and Quantity Rapidly Decrease the Imports and Increase
the Exports ..............................................................................................................................26
3.1.4 China Stainless Steel Industry Develops Better than Overall Situation of Steel Industry 28
3.2 Great Space to Cultivate for China Stainless Steel Consumption .............................................30
3.2.1 China Economic Is Increasing Rapidly...........................................................................30
3.2.2 Consumption and Production of Stainless Steel Take Low Proportion of Consumption and
Production in the Entire Steel Industry ....................................................................................32
3.2.3 Low Average Consumption of Stainless Steel per Capita in China.................................33
3.2.4 Stainless Steel in Stock per Capita in China is 1/7 Less than the Developed Countries 35
3.2.5 From Development Course of Japan Stainless Steel, There Is Still Space to Develop for
China......................................................................................................................................35
3.2.6 Influence from Economy Structure on Unit GDP Stainless Steel Consumption Hasn’t
Taken Place in China ..............................................................................................................40
3.2.7 China Has More Space to Export Stainless Steel, but It Is Difficult ................................42
4 China Stainless Steel Industry Development in 2007H2.................................................................43

4.1 Policy Influence .........................................................................................................................43
4.2 Stainless Steel Industry Shows Moderate and Comparative Surplus ........................................46
4.3 Nickel Price Has Declined Gradually.........................................................................................48
4.3.1 Nickel Price Will Decline but Remain the High Level in a Short Period..........................48
4.3.2 Ratio of Ferritic Stainless Steel Will Make the Nickel Price Decline Further in the Long
Term.......................................................................................................................................51
4.3.3 Nickel Price will Continue to Decline ..............................................................................53
4.4 Forecast of Profitability of Stainless Steel Industry....................................................................53
4.5 High Concentration Is Benefit for Self-discipline of the Industry................................................57
Chart Index:
Comparison of Steel Price Index and Stainless Steel Price Index Worldwide ...................................5
Growth Rates for the Global Consumption of Steel Materials and Stainless Steel ............................6
Average Growth Rate for Stainless Steel Consumption and Average Growth Rate for Carbon Steel
Consumption.............................................................................................................................7
Average Growth Rate for Stainless Steel Consumption and Growth Rate for GDP ..........................7
Growth Rates for Global GDP and Growth Rate for Apparent Consumption of Stainless Steel,
1994-2007.................................................................................................................................8
Stainless Steel Output and GDP Growth in Japan, 1960-2007 .........................................................9
Stainless Steel Prices and Consumption Trend Worldwide, 1994-2007 ..........................................10
Consumption Structure of Global Nickel Downstream Industries, 2006 ..........................................10
Proportion of Nickel in the Cost of Stainless Steel .......................................................................... 11
Price Trend of Nickel and East Asia Cold-rolled Stainless Steel Coils............................................. 11
Consumption Structure of Global Stainless Steel Downstream Industries, 2006.............................12
Average Growth Rates for Consumption of Main Materials Worldwide, 1980-2004........................13
Growth Rate of Global Economy, 1970-2008..................................................................................14
Economic Growth Rates of Main Asian Countries, 2006-2008........................................................15
Growth Rate for Stainless Steel Consumption by Main Country, 2002-2007...................................16
Comparison of Stainless Steel Consumption/Unit GDP in Asian Countries and the World’s Average
Level .......................................................................................................................................17
Proportions for Main Countries’ Consumption of Stainless Steel in Global Consumption, 2006......17
Stainless Steel Production Capacity by Continent, 2002-2007........................................................18
Proportions for Stainless Steel Output Increment of Asian Countries in Total Output Increment,
2002-2007...............................................................................................................................19
Proportions for Stainless Steel Output of Countries in Global Output, 2006....................................19
Polarized Nickel Content of Stainless Steel Varieties ......................................................................20
Ratio of Main Stainless Steel Varieties to Total Stainless Steel Amount Worldwide.........................21
Proportions for Stainless Steel Varieties Produced in Japan, 1959-2005........................................21
Deepening and Prevalence of Stainless Steel Applications.............................................................22
Fast Increase in Stainless Steel Consumption and Demand...........................................................23
Imports and Exports of China Stainless Steel..................................................................................24
Top Grade Stainless Steel Products-Cold Rolled Stainless Steel, Import & Export .........................25
Destination Countries/Regions of Chinese Stainless Steel Exports ................................................25

Imports Dependence of Stainless Steel...........................................................................................26
Import Structure of Stainless Steel in China, Jan-Apr 2007.............................................................27
Import Structure Tendency of Stainless Steel in China....................................................................27
Import Structure of Stainless Steel in China, Jan-Apr 2007.............................................................28
Industry Concentration of China Stainless Steel Industry and Entire Steel Industry........................29
Ratio of Backward Capacity in China Stainless Steel Industry and China Entire Steel Industry......30
China’s Industrialization and Urbanization ......................................................................................31
GDP Growth of China, 1995-2009 ..................................................................................................31
Stainless Steel Production Takes the Total Crude Steel Production in the Same Region................32
Stainless Steel Consumption Takes Total Steel Consumption in the Same Region.........................33
Average Consumption of stainless steel per Capita by Country/Region, 2006 ...............................34
Stainless Steel in Stock per Capita in Partial Developed Countries/Regions ..................................34
Comparison of Stainless Steel Consumption Patterns between China and Japan..........................36
Stainless Steel Consumption as for Unit GDP (PPP) in Japan........................................................36
Average Stainless Steel Consumption per Capita in Japan.............................................................37
Population Growth and GDP Growth in Japan................................................................................38
Ni-Saving Stainless Steel in China and Japan ................................................................................38
Changes of Consumption in Each Field to Total Consumption in Japan in the Past 40 Years ........39
Current Consumption Structure of Stainless Steel in China ............................................................40
Unit GDP (PPP) of Stainless Steel Consumption of Each Country to China ...................................41
Export Proportion of Stainless Steel in China and Japan to National Production ............................41
Stainless Export Structure, Apr. 2007 and Export Drawback Adjustment, Apr. 15, 2007 .................43
Stainless Steel Export Structure, Apr. 2007 and Export Drawback Adjustment, Jul 1, 2007............44
Export Amount of Stainless Steel in China by Product, Apr, 2007 ...................................................45
Influence of Drawback Adjustment on Net Profit on the Basis of April.............................................45
Supply and Demand Balance of Stainless Steel in China ...............................................................47
Stainless Steel Cost of 0Cr18Ni9, Taiyuan Steel 300 Series ...........................................................48
Cost Ratio of Nickel and Chrome Iron of Taiyuan Steel 300 Series.................................................49
Price Trend of Futures Nickel of LME March and Shanghai Yangtze River Spot Nickel..................49
LME Stock and Future Nickel Price Trend.......................................................................................50
Nickel Saving Amount Calculated by Ratio of Ferritic Stainless Stee..............................................51
Ratio of Nickel Saving Amount to Nickel Output .............................................................................51
Supply and Demand Balance of Nickel ...........................................................................................52
Growth of Stainless Steel and Nickel for Stainless Steel .................................................................52
Trend of Qingdao Port Ore Price and Qinhuangdao Coal Price......................................................54
Index Trend of Dry and Bulk Cargo Transportation Expense along Baltic Sea ...............................54
Stainless Steel Market Stock in Wuxi ..............................................................................................55
Stainless Steel Market Stock in Foshan ..........................................................................................55
Sales Price of 3042B Cold Rolled Plate in Wuxi Stainless Steel Market .........................................56
Growth of Stainless Steel Price and Nickel Price ............................................................................56

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